Wednesday, 30 May 2012

French Legislative Elections

Francois Hollande won the Presidential Election - but will he enjoy a co-operative Assemblee nationale? Some people have spoken of the possibility of a "Vague rose" (in French that means 'pink wave' - referring to the the success of the Left - a delayed 'coattails effect')

The Opinion Polls are not hopeful - Le Monde reported yesterday:-

"The balance of power favors the Left, but we are not moving towards a tidal wave of (soft) red to the Assemblee nationale. This is the main lesson from the first survey of voting intentions on the parliamentary elections by Ipsos-Logica Business Consulting for Le Monde, France Television and Radio France.

In this study, (carried out on 25 and May 26 from a representative sample of the French population of 962 people), the UMP {the party that backed Sarkozy} and its allies (New Centre, Valoisien Radical Party, various right of centre parties) are credited with 35% of the vote in the first round, before the Parti Socialiste {Hollande's Party} and its allies (Radical Left Party, Republican and Citizens Movement, various left), who obtain 31%. The Front National {Le Pen} (15%), is behind them, ahead of the Left Front (8%), Europe Ecology-Greens (6%) and the extreme left (1.5%)."

While these figures give more support to the parties of the right - the expectation is that in the second round - when only the two leading candidates are on the ballot - because the Right is divided (The Front national will not pick up some of the votes given by centre-right voters) - Hollande should get a majority - but it may be a small one.