Washminster

Washminster
Washminster

Tuesday 21 December 2010

2010 Census and the 2012 Elections

The details of the 2010 census in the USA were released today. The political significance of the apportionment of Representatives is

  • Some states will have more more seats in the House of Representatives - some will have less
  • The Electoral College for the election of the President changes - again giving more "Electoral College Votes" to some - and less to others
Winners
  • Texas +4
  • Florida +2
  • Arizona : Georgia : Nevada : South Carolina : Utah : Washington - all +1
Losers
  • New York : Ohio : each -2
  • Illinois : Iowa : Louisiana : Massachusetts : Michigan : Missouri : New Jersey : Pennsylvania - all -1
If these are compared with the 2008 Presidential Election - Obama would have only won 343 Electoral Votes and McCain would have increased his Electoral College tally to 168. On the face of it, not a great difference - but for 2012 it makes Florida more important (Obama only won it with 50.9% of the vote). Solidly Republican states gain in their proportion of the Electoral College seats [Texas (4) - 55% :  Arizona (1) 54% South Carolina (1) 54% Utah (1) 63%] while solid Democratic states lose their proportional strength [New York (-2) 63% : Illinois (-1) 62% : Iowa (-1) 54% : Massachusetts (-1) 62% : New Jersey (-1) 57% : Pennsylvania (-1) 54%. 

Of further concern to the Democrats is that as a result of the 2010 state elections - more of the redistricting within the States will be in Republican hands - which could significantly affect the makeup of the House of Representatives.

The details of the census data can be accessed here.