The Senate Firewall

It was reported earlier this week that the Democrats regarded the states of Iowa; North Carolina and Colorado as key to holding control of the Senate. There are other important races - but these are the ones that they see as key to the final outcome of this years Senate campaigns.

Colorado is currently held by Mark Udall, who won it in 2008. Republican Wayne Allard had been the Senator whose seat was up for re-election, but he retired. In the year that Barack Obama won the presidency (with 54% of the vote in Colorado), Udall won with 52.8% of the vote. Obama lost ground in 2012 with a majority of 137,858 over Romney. That constituted a Democratic vote of just 51%. Cory Gardner is the Republican challenger.

 

Iowa is an open Senate seat, with the retirement of Tom Harkin - who was one of the so-called "Watergate Babies" elected to the House of Representatives in 1974, and who won election to the Senate ten years later. Bruce Braley for the Democrats, and Joni Ernst for the Republicans have been fighting a close battle. Obama won the state in 2008 (54%) and 2012 (52%) - losing 6,396 votes on the way. This a race to keep a close eye on!

 

 

Kay Hagan has her work cut out to hold on to her Senate seat representing North Carolina. At the last presidential election, Romney beat Obama by 50% to 48%. At the same election a Republican, Pat McCrory, won the race to be governor by 55% to 43%. The two houses of the State Legislature are held by the Republicans. In the US House of Representatives the NC delegation has 9 Republicans and 4 Democrats. Politics in America 2014 commented, "Republicans are eager to knock off Hagan in the 2014 elections, but her actions as a first-term senator have set her up for a spirited defense." The Republican challenger is Thom Tillis, the current Speaker in the State House of Representatives.

 

 

Iowa

The world's attention will of course be focused on Iowa today - as the caucuses are held - the first time that real voters get to make their choices known for the Presidential election. While interest is centered on the Republican caucus - there are also similar meetings for Democratic supporters. President Obama is hot favourite there! As the polls suggest - the result of the Republican caucus is less clear cut.

As I wrote four years ago -

Party supporters will meet across the state to select their nominees for the candidacy of their party. Party meetings are held in each Precinct (the equivalent of a ward in the UK). These may be in 'public' buildings such as schools, public libraries or churches - or may be in a particular person's home. Each precinct contributes towards the county convention, of which there are 99. These county conventions then select delegates for both Iowa's Congressional District Convention and the State Convention—these eventually choosing the delegates for the National Convention.


The process for selecting nominees differs in each party. The registered Republicans who turn up for their meeting listen to arguments for candidates put forward by other caucus participants then write the name of their chosen candidate on a previously blank piece of paper - voting by secret ballot. The results are then sent to the Iowa Republican Party who release the final totals.

The Democratic caucus this time will focus more on preparing for the final stages of the Presidential race (which of course, with an incumbent President facing no serious challenger from within his party, starts now).

But Washminster's interest in Iowa will not end tonight. During 2012 I will be paying special attention to 15 states where there are wider electoral interests. Some will be key states which could tip the Presidential race either way. Others have a number of key House or Senate races. Iowa is one of those states. It has 6 Electoral College Votes for the Presidential - and is currently regarded as a toss up. All four of its House races are regarded as competitive. The redistricting following the census leaves Iowa with one less seat.

Districts 1 (Bruce Braley D) and 2 (Dave Loebsack) are regarded as 'likely Democratic'; 3 (a merged seat is 'toss up' Leonard Boswell D, the member for the current 3rd district will face Tom Latham R, the Member for the current 4th district) and 4 is 'lean Republican' (Steve King R). [Cook's Political Report 28th December]. Rothenberg concurs over IA03, but regards the other seats as safer than Cook does.

As with the other states that Washminster will be following (and a few additional House and Senate races) - we'll be looking at the candidates and the issues in more detail as the campaign progresses.

2010 Census and the 2012 Elections

The details of the 2010 census in the USA were released today. The political significance of the apportionment of Representatives is

• Some states will have more more seats in the House of Representatives - some will have less
• The Electoral College for the election of the President changes - again giving more "Electoral College Votes" to some - and less to others

Winners

• Texas +4
• Florida +2
• Arizona : Georgia : Nevada : South Carolina : Utah : Washington - all +1

Losers

• New York : Ohio : each -2
• Illinois : Iowa : Louisiana : Massachusetts : Michigan : Missouri : New Jersey : Pennsylvania - all -1

If these are compared with the 2008 Presidential Election - Obama would have only won 343 Electoral Votes and McCain would have increased his Electoral College tally to 168. On the face of it, not a great difference - but for 2012 it makes Florida more important (Obama only won it with 50.9% of the vote). Solidly Republican states gain in their proportion of the Electoral College seats [Texas (4) - 55% :  Arizona (1) 54% South Carolina (1) 54% Utah (1) 63%] while solid Democratic states lose their proportional strength [New York (-2) 63% : Illinois (-1) 62% : Iowa (-1) 54% : Massachusetts (-1) 62% : New Jersey (-1) 57% : Pennsylvania (-1) 54%. 

Of further concern to the Democrats is that as a result of the 2010 state elections - more of the redistricting within the States will be in Republican hands - which could significantly affect the makeup of the House of Representatives.

The details of the census data can be accessed here.