2010 Census and the 2012 Elections

The details of the 2010 census in the USA were released today. The political significance of the apportionment of Representatives is

• Some states will have more more seats in the House of Representatives - some will have less
• The Electoral College for the election of the President changes - again giving more "Electoral College Votes" to some - and less to others

Winners

• Texas +4
• Florida +2
• Arizona : Georgia : Nevada : South Carolina : Utah : Washington - all +1

Losers

• New York : Ohio : each -2
• Illinois : Iowa : Louisiana : Massachusetts : Michigan : Missouri : New Jersey : Pennsylvania - all -1

If these are compared with the 2008 Presidential Election - Obama would have only won 343 Electoral Votes and McCain would have increased his Electoral College tally to 168. On the face of it, not a great difference - but for 2012 it makes Florida more important (Obama only won it with 50.9% of the vote). Solidly Republican states gain in their proportion of the Electoral College seats [Texas (4) - 55% :  Arizona (1) 54% South Carolina (1) 54% Utah (1) 63%] while solid Democratic states lose their proportional strength [New York (-2) 63% : Illinois (-1) 62% : Iowa (-1) 54% : Massachusetts (-1) 62% : New Jersey (-1) 57% : Pennsylvania (-1) 54%. 

Of further concern to the Democrats is that as a result of the 2010 state elections - more of the redistricting within the States will be in Republican hands - which could significantly affect the makeup of the House of Representatives.

The details of the census data can be accessed here.

IL 10

The tenth district of Illinois covers the suburbs north of Chicago and runs along the shore of Lake Michigan. It has the state's highest percentage of college educated and white collar workers.

Mark Kirk is a centrist Republican who has served in the House since 2000. He is noted for his concerns over congressional ethics - he threatened to vote against ethics rules changes proposed by the Republican leadership which would have protected Tom DeLay. He has promoted legislation to cancel the benefits of any member of Congress who is convicted of a felony. "Well educated and polished" (Congressional Quarterly), Mark Kirk earned one of his three degrees from the London School of Economics and worked for a British MP before becoming a congressional staffer. His website is http://www.kirkforcongress.com/

Challenging Congressman Kirk is Dan Seals, who contested the seat in 2006. Electoral-vote.com makes the point that "this could be a big year for charismatic young politicians from Chicago". Dan Seals is a business consultant and public policy lecturer at Northwestern University. His website ( and I love the walk on video!) is http://www.dansealsforcongress.com/index.php

IL 11

The 11th District of Illinois is an Open Seat (currently represented by the Republican Jerry Weller). Bush won this district by only 50-48% in 2004 and the Cook Political Report of August 7th lists it as "Leaning Democratic". Illinois is of course the state for which Barack Obama is the Junior Senator. (Dick Durbin - the Majority Whip is the Senior Senator, who is up for election himself)

The district covers the Chicago suburbs in Will County and the old industrial city of Joliet. It also includes farming country to the west and, as the map shows a thin arm reaches down to Bloomington-Normal (the home of Illinois State University).

Democrat Debbie Halvorson (http://www.debbiehalvorson.com/) is seeking to wrest the seat from the Republican Party, which is represented by Marty Ozinga (http://www.martyozinga.com/).