2010 Census and the 2012 Elections

The details of the 2010 census in the USA were released today. The political significance of the apportionment of Representatives is

• Some states will have more more seats in the House of Representatives - some will have less
• The Electoral College for the election of the President changes - again giving more "Electoral College Votes" to some - and less to others

Winners

• Texas +4
• Florida +2
• Arizona : Georgia : Nevada : South Carolina : Utah : Washington - all +1

Losers

• New York : Ohio : each -2
• Illinois : Iowa : Louisiana : Massachusetts : Michigan : Missouri : New Jersey : Pennsylvania - all -1

If these are compared with the 2008 Presidential Election - Obama would have only won 343 Electoral Votes and McCain would have increased his Electoral College tally to 168. On the face of it, not a great difference - but for 2012 it makes Florida more important (Obama only won it with 50.9% of the vote). Solidly Republican states gain in their proportion of the Electoral College seats [Texas (4) - 55% :  Arizona (1) 54% South Carolina (1) 54% Utah (1) 63%] while solid Democratic states lose their proportional strength [New York (-2) 63% : Illinois (-1) 62% : Iowa (-1) 54% : Massachusetts (-1) 62% : New Jersey (-1) 57% : Pennsylvania (-1) 54%. 

Of further concern to the Democrats is that as a result of the 2010 state elections - more of the redistricting within the States will be in Republican hands - which could significantly affect the makeup of the House of Representatives.

The details of the census data can be accessed here.

Census and Apportionment Announcement

From RollCall

The U.S. Census Bureau will release the new Congressional apportionment figures at a Dec. 21 news conference at the National Press Club, making official the number of Congressional districts each state will have for the next 10 years.

The new figures will be based on the populations of each state as found in the 2010 census. Population changes affect not only the size of each state’s delegation but also its number of electoral votes.

The Census

As fans of "The West Wing" will recall (Mr Willis of Ohio), the constitutionally required Census raises a number of sensitive issues.



Already the debate about the 2010 census is causing controversy. This press conference occured a few days ago.