Confessions of an addict

I have to confess - I love elections. The first one, that excited my interest, was the 1970 General Election. I was ten years old! My father took me to a number of election meetings. I met & got the autograph of Roy Jenkins (Chancellor of the Exchequer & former Home Secretary). I also met George Brown (Deputy Leader of the Labour Party & former Foreign Secretary), who refused to sign my autograph book - he lost his seat days later!!!

In 1974 I became actively involved - handing out leaflets for Geoff Edge; and cutting up a copy of the electoral register to glue onto cards for use on election day. (How I appreciate computer printouts now!). At the Walsall North by-election I did my first door-to-door canvassing. Subsequently I ran for the Westminster Parliament, twice - and the European Parliament - as well as running for council (even being elected to Northamptonshire County Council).

US elections have fascinated me since 1972. I have flown over to Virginia for the 2004; 2008 and 2010 Elections. As an academic I have presented papers on the 1974 congressional elections. I have quite a library on US and UK elections - as well as practical and academic books on political marketing and elections. I also have Le Monde's results for French elections going back a number of years!!!

Thanks to reprints, the "The Making of the President" series  is once again available.

Back in England

With the election completed in the United States, I have now returned to England. Washminster will be returning to a more predictable publication schedule. My activities in elections will however be continuing for a few more days. Thursday will see a parliamentary by-election in Corby. I used to live in Northamptonshire and the constituency is not very far from my current home. The Labour Candidate is Andy Sawford, son of Phil Sawford - the former MP for neighbouring Kettering. Details of the by-election and its many candidates can be found at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-19635837

Thursday also sees elections across England for the newly created Police and Crime Commissioners. There is an informative website about these elections at http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/pcc.aspx

Today sees the annual speech by the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs at the Lord Mayor's Banquet.

Election Day

The day has finally arrived. The Iowa caucuses seem such a long time ago - and the long run up to them as various Republicans positioned themselves to take on President Obama. In fact it seems that this election has been running for the last four years. But finally election day 2012 is here.

Yesterday saw a remarkable operation run from our office. Voters were contacted on the phone or in person on their doorsteps. They were reminded of their polling station and the new requirements for voter ID. Volunteers sat in every available chair using landlines, campaign supplied mobiles and their own "cellphones". When there were no seats left, people sat on the floor. Canvassers were dispatched to a number of centres around the Fairfax county area. From high school students (yesterday was a school holiday) to retirees, volunteers flooded in and were set to work.

As I write this in bed (it's not yet 04-30), work is underway in Huntington and hundreds of offices around the country to get today's operation underway. Polls open at 6-00 in Virginia. They will close at 7pm. Then afterwards the results will be awaited. Unlike in the UK, there is no central place where candidates of all parties and their supporters attend 'the count'. Instead results are phoned in from each of the counts at every polling station. The candidates will be based at their own Headquarters. Many of my colleagues who have been working on the Tim Kaine campaign will be heading down to Richmond, where the Democratic senatorial candidate will await the result along with his supporters. I'll remain in North Virginia to follow the national, state and local results. It's going a long day and night - and I'll be getting up in just 15 minutes! At five....

The Race is on...

The good news - and the bad news...

The good news is that that I am entering the final stretch writing up my Ph.D. Finally the reading; the interviewing and the thinking are coming together into a single structured paper (well a very long paper!). Soon I’ll be submitting, what I hope is a readable draft.


The bad news is that it has meant that I’ve not been able to keep the Washminster posts flowing. (I hope you noticed!)

The good news is that Washminster is about to enter a new exciting period. I’ll be posting from Labour Party Conference. Because I will also be continuing to hone the Ph.D. paper, I will sadly be foregoing the pictures to accompany posts – and they may be a little raw – but I hope that you’ll enjoy the eye witness account; description and explanation of this annual politics-fest.

Then I’ll be back to the full time work on the Ph.D. and prep for the next “adventure”, which is my visit to Virginia for the last couple of weeks of the Presidential; Senate & House races in that great state. As in 2008, I hope to be posting frequently and fully while I’ll there.

So please keep visiting the Washminster blog. I’ll also be tweeting on ‘jdm_progressive’ during this period.

David

Carr and Morgan on the Republican Convention

This is a recording (with pictures) of the interview former Congressman Bob Carr and I did last Friday following Mitt Romney's speech at the Republican Convention. The BBC Presenter is Stuat Linnell.

Welcome back...

... to the Washminster Blog. Summer, sadly, is now over [though it hasn't been a great one in the UK] - and a busy Autumn (or Fall) beckons. So Washminster will be publishing posts about


- The US elections – which are on November 6th
- The British parliamentary scene – the House of Commons returns this week, and the Coalition must face Parliament after a stormy summer
- British party conferences during September and October
- Forthcoming exams for my Open Students – but all are welcome to read my revision pieces about the British Constitution; English legal System; EU Law and Criminal Law
- The new American Football season
- The conclusion of the Baseball season – which has been pretty spectacular for the Washington Nationals
- And much, much more…

Please do contact me if there are any subjects you’d like to see posts on – or have a contribution you’d like to make.

Coming Soon....

Washminster will return on Saturday 1st September. Initially I am aiming for a post, on average, every other day - but this will increase shortly. Please do pass the message on about the return of this blog.

In particular this blog should be of interest to those

* who are studying Law and Politics - particularly of the US and the UK
* who enjoy British history
* who enjoy US history
* who are interested in French and EU Government, politics and history
* who enjoying thinking about the practical application of political ideas
* who take an interest in UK, US & French election

so if any of those describe YOU - please subscribe to Washminster. If they describe any of your friends or students - drop them an email - or post about Washminster on Facebook or Twitter.

Many thanks

David

Returning...

Washminster will be returning shortly - with lots on

Elections (USA - Presidential; Senate; House of Representatives - and more!) - a nearby Parliamentary by-election in the UK (Corby)

History - the stories behind developments in the USA; UK; France and Europe.

Exam Revision - especially (but not exclusively) aimed at W200 and W201 students in the Open University

So watch this space....
(in the meantime enjoy the magnificent show that is the 2012 Olympics...)

At the Races

The Slippery Slope

English law has long recognised that a person can protect themselves when under attack from another person, even when the result is the death of the attacker. That might surprise you if you've read some of the claims of the British newspapers such as the Daily Mail. In fact, juries are prepared to bend over backwards to acquit where someone has killed whilst facing a violent intruder.

The most famous case where the press, and some politicians, claimed the law denied the right of self defence - was that of Tony Martin - who killed when his property was being burgled. But the full law report needs to be read. The jury convicted because they heard evidence which convinced them that Martin went far beyond what was necessary or acceptable.

Despite The facts – and the House of Commons Library did an excellent paper on research into cases of claimed self-defence – which showed how far juries would go in refusing to convict – there have been demands to change the law to make self defence even easier to succeed with.


The trouble is this can allow killings which are in truth, unjustified. In the USA we have seen the recent tragedy of Trayvon Martin who was killed by a vigilante.

Today the Washington Post has an article showing how the number of killings has increased with “Stand Your Ground” Laws. In Florida they have tripled. Are they letting people get away with murder, literally!

Congressional "Casualties"

Roll Call regularly updates its Casuality List - Members who have either left, or have announced that they are leaving Congress. It's a useful tool for seeing which races will be fought in an "Open" seat. Incumbents have great advantages, and many seats only change hands when a long serving member retires. It's also useful for noting who is moving on - as many of you know, I am coming to the end of my studies for my Ph.D. looking at whips in  the four Houses of the US Congress and UK Parliament. As I shall be visiting Washington DC shortly I'm keen to know which whips and former whips will be leaving town at the end of the year.

The current list of "casualties" is

Appointed to Senate — (1 House: 1R)


House: Dean Heller (R-Nev.), 51, 3 terms

Running for Senate — (12 House: 6D, 6R)

House:
Todd Akin (R-Mo.), 64, 6 terms
Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), 50, 7 terms
Rick Berg (R-N.D.), 52, 1 term
Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.), 61, 7 terms
Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), 56, 3 terms
Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), 49, 6 terms
Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), 40, 2 terms
Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), 64, 3 terms
Connie Mack IV (R-Fla.), 44, 4 terms
Christopher Murphy (D-Conn.), 38, 3 terms
Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.), 56, 6 terms
Bob Turner (R-N.Y.), 70, 1 term

Running for Other Office — (3 House: 1D, 2R)

House:
Bob Filner (D-Calif.), 69, 10 terms
Ron Paul (R-Texas), 76, 8 terms *running for president, & has announced retirement at end of this Congress.

Mike Pence (R-Ind.), 52, 6 terms

Retiring — (23 House: 14D, 9R; 10 Senate: 6D, 1I, 3R)

House:
Gary Ackerman (D-N.Y.), 69, 14 terms
Steve Austria (R-Ohio), 53, 2 terms
Dan Boren (D-Okla.), 38, 4 terms
Dan Burton (R-Ind.), 73, 15 terms
Dennis Cardoza (D-Calif.), 52, 5 terms
Jerry Costello (D-Ill.), 62, 12 terms
Geoff Davis (R-Ky.), 53, 4 terms
Norm Dicks (D-Wash.), 71, 18 terms
David Dreier (R-Calif.), 59, 16 terms
Barney Frank (D-Mass.), 71, 16 terms
Elton Gallegly (R-Calif.), 68, 13 terms
Charlie Gonzalez (D-Texas), 66, 7 terms
Wally Herger (R-Calif.), 66, 13 terms
Maurice Hinchey (D-N.Y.), 73, 10 terms
Dale Kildee (D-Mich.), 82, 18 terms
Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.), 77, 17 terms
Brad Miller (D-N.C.), 58, 5 terms
Sue Myrick (R-N.C.), 70, 9 terms
John Olver (D-Mass.), 75, 10 terms
Todd Platts (R-Pa.), 50, 6 terms
Mike Ross (D-Ark.), 50, 6 terms
Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), 40, 3 terms
Lynn Woolsey (D-Calif.), 74, 10 terms
Senate:
Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii), 87, 3 terms
Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), 68, 5 terms
Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), 64, 3 terms
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas), 68, 3 terms
Herb Kohl (D-Wis.), 77, 4 terms
Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), 69, 3 terms
Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), 70, 4 terms
Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), 70, 2 terms
Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), 65, 3 terms
Jim Webb (D-Va.), 66, 1 term

Defeated in Primary — (3 House: 1D, 2R)

House:
Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio), 65, 8 terms
Don Manzullo (R-Ill.), 67, 10 terms
Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio), 60, 3 terms

Resigned — (6 House: 5D, 1R; 1 Senate: 1R)

House:
Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), 41, 3 terms
Jane Harman (D-Calif.), 66, 6 terms
Jay Inslee (D-Wash.), 61, 8 terms
Chris Lee (R-N.Y.), 47, 2 terms
Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.), 47, 7 terms
David Wu (D-Ore.), 56, 7 terms
Senate:
John Ensign (R-Nev.), 53, 2 terms

Died — (1 House: 1D)

House: Donald Payne (D-N.J.), 77, 12 terms

Watch the race - as it continues

Tonight the results of the Primaries in Alabama and Mississippi (and the caucuses in Hawaii and American Samoa) will be known. A joint Politico/C-SPAN broadcast will be streamed live here. There is also an interesting primary in AL06 (Alabama 6th District), where the Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, Spencer Bachus faces a major challenge. An article in Politico gives some background.

A copy of the sample ballot for the republican primary in Chilton County (part of AL06) can be viewed here.

The live simulcast begins at 7.00pm Eastern Time. British (and other European) viewers are reminded that Daylight Saving Time began in the US on Sunday, so until 25th March the time difference is one hour less. (11pm UK - midnight Western Europe). More from C-SPAN at -
http://www.c-span.org/Events/Polls-Project-a-Close-Race-in-Alabama-Mississippi-Primaries/10737428971/

Beyond Super Tuesday

The results are in - and the analysis done - but what next?

The contest for the Republican nomination will continue - but does it remain the most important election facing the US? It is being reported that some Republicans are privately conceding that their chances of seizing the presidency are fading away. Instead, they argue, all efforts need to be concentrated upon the Congressional races. As one rather stark argument puts it - if Obama is to be re-elected, the republicans should make sure that he is a lame-duck President from the day of his second inauguration. A Congress with a majority in both the House and the senate could do that. They would set the legislative agenda - and seek to overturn any vetos coming from him.

It's not an inspiring vision - but does emphasis the independent power that Congress enjoys (and what a contrast with the UK Parliament - which is run by the Executive).[yes I know that I'm being provocative with that last comment - but will happily defend my assertion if challenged - so send your comments to this blog!]

The Congressional Elections do matter - and they look as interesting as this fascinating Presidential Race (and I write this after a night with little sleep - the time differences between Milton Keynes and the US - especially Alaska, are a bit of a nuisance). Last night saw the first member versus member primary in Ohio - and there are more to follow in other states as a result of the redistricting which has followed the Census. Dennis Kucinich (current OH10) was defeated by Marcy Kaptur (current OH09) in the new 9th District of Ohio. In OH02 Brad Wenstrup, with Tea Party support, ousted the sitting Member, Jean Schmidt.

Washminster will, as in 2008 and 2010, be looking at the key Congressional races as the year unfolds...watch this space!

A ballot paper for Super Tuesday

Thanks to Rich Corbett's blog , it is possible to see what the primary ballot paper looks like. It'll come as a bit of a shock to British readers - as our papers are a lot less complicated.

The Ballot paper looks like this

Super Tuesday

Once again, it's "Super Tuesday" in the USA. The day upon which a number of States have their presidential primaries or caucuses. In an ideal world (if you are hoping that "your" party will win the November election) - the nomination will be sown up on, or by this day. Of course this hasn't happened for the Republicans this year.

The States where the action will be are -

Alaska - caucus
Georgia - Primary
Idaho - Caucus
Massachusetts - Primary
North Dakota - Caucus
Ohio - Primary
Oklahoma - Primary
Tennessee - Primary
Vermont - Primary
Virginia - Primary

The important thing to remember is that each state has different rules. Some are open, others are only for registered Republican voters. The results are binding in all of today's caucuses - though some earlier ones (such as last Saturday's caucus in Washington State), are non-binding. In some states the delegates will be allocated proportionally to the number of votes cast, while in certain circumstances - it changes to 'winner take all'. In some States not all candidates have been able to get on the ballot paper (Virginia only has Romney and Paul - the VA rules can be found here.). It's an evening for either sitting there with the detailed rules for each state Republican party - or letting the experts explain who gets what. (Even then the experts can differ - which explains why different websites have different figures for the numbers of delegates won by each candidate).

Recent Developments in the European Union

One of this afternoon's debates on the House of Lords is on a motion to take "note of recent developments in the European Union." EU matters are frequently discussed in the main chamber and there is an extensive and active subcommittee structure of the EU Select Committee. Further details here.

Sadly I won't be around to watch the debate. Instead I'm heading for Rugby - where I'll be discussing the question “US election 2012: Can Obama do it again?” with the Warwickshire Fabian Society. The meeting is at the Friends Meeting House, 28 Regent Place, Rugby, CV21 2PN. It begins at 7-30pm. You'd be welcome to join us.

Popular with Students

There's an excellent article on the "Online Colleges" blog about "10 Presidential Candidates who were popular with College Students" - it brought back happy memories of following earlier campaigns - and is also informative.

Thanks to Dr Jill Rooney.

The post can be read at http://www.onlinecolleges.net/2012/02/13/10-presidential-candidates-who-were-popular-with-college-students/

I'd rather be in....

....well the famous quote by W C Fields was "Philadelphia" - but of course today, with an important Primary taking place there, "Florida" would be the chosen place. [Having said that I love Philadelphia - it has so much history - I could (and have) spent hours exploring the sites associated with the American Revolution and the formation of the republic: I'd also rather be in Washington DC; and after starting my day with a cup of Pike Place Roast coffee - I wouldn't say no to a visit to the Seattle home of Starbucks.]

But, my attention will be on Florida today. Sadly at a distance of 4,338 miles (Great Circle distance) I will have to rely on the computer - useful internet addresses for today are

Miami Herald - http://www.miamiherald.com/
Bay News TV - http://www.baynews9.com/
CNN - http://us.cnn.com/POLITICS/
MSNBC - http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/ns/politics/
Fox News - http://www.foxnews.com/politics/index.html

Why Newt is scary...

It's been an interesting few days in US politics (and apologies for Washminster's absence - a mixture of a trip to Norfolk; parties in Northampton; family visits to my home - and filing returns to the taxman!). With the Florida primary a few days away - some who want a Republican victory in November's presidential election have been panicked by the thought that Newt Gingrich might be gathering enough momentum to seize the nomination. So what are they worried about?

Newt is a former Speaker of the House of Representatives. Significantly he was the FIRST Republican Speaker for 40 years (Trivia Question - who was the previous Republican Speaker? - I will publish the answer just after 5am GMT tomorrow morning). That amazing victory owed much to the work of Newt. He changed the mindset - and the tactics of House Republicans. So why are many Republicans so ungrateful?

David Frum wrote this week "It's striking that almost none of Gingrich's former colleagues in the House has endorsed him for president. Striking that nobody associated with a past Republican presidential association has done so. He is a candidate of talk-show hosts and local activists -- and of course of Rick Perry and Sarah Palin -- but not of those who know him best and have worked with him most closely. Gingrich may raise more money after his South Carolina win. But prediction: Romney will raise even more, among the great national network of Republicans who recognize that to nominate Gingrich is to commit party suicide."
I have to admit that I think Newt is brilliant - he has an understanding (partly academic - but also an amazing instinctive feel) for what works in MASS seduction. He has learned & deploys all the tricks and techniques to motivate and mobilise people for his agenda. A word of warning - admiring someone for their brillance is NOT the same as endorsing that person or finding his actions at all acceptable. I am also in awe of Hitler for a similarly high level of brillance in the same area. I wholly reject his philosophy and his actions. [by the way today is Holocaust Memorial Day]

Anyone interested in political communication should study Newt - and citizens need to protect themselves by studying the techniques he uses. He puts a lot of emphasis on the use of language - his memo to Republican candidates (the 1996 GOPAC) on Language as a key mechanism of control is very important.
It can be read here. His use of C-SPAN (unwitting collaborators) to frame viewers impressions of Congress and his opponents was masterful. As Newt himself is reported to have said "My ability to organize and orchestrate things would be vastly greater than a normal politician."-- (CBN News). Gingrich understands (and many politicians don't) that you can't persuade everyone to love you. Gingrich will never win the support of committed lerals and progressives. He has his "targets" and seeks to mobilise them.
Jon Meacham wrote this week in an article 'Why Newt is Like Nixon' "The analogous elements are obvious. Like Nixon, Gingrich is smart, with a wide-ranging and entrepreneurial mind. Like Nixon, Gingrich is a striver who seems insecure around traditional establishment figures even though he has achieved much more than nearly all of the politicians, editors and reporters he seems to at once loathe and fear. Like Nixon, Gingrich is fluent in the vernacular of cultural populism, brilliantly casting contemporary American life in terms of an overarching conflict between 'real' people and distant 'elites' bent on the destruction of all that is good and noble about the United States."

As Frum highlighted, the fear amongst some Republicans is that he could win the nomination - and while he has a strong following - he also will provoke an angry reaction. Like Goldwater (1964) and McGovern (1972) the party may suffer a humiliating loss in the Presidential election. Worse still for the Republicans, his candidacy could sink GOP congressional candidates - Bob Dole (Republican Presidential Candidate in 1996) issued a statement this week saying - "I have not been critical of Newt Gingrich but it is now time to take a stand before it is too late. If Gingrich is the nominee it will have an adverse impact on Republican candidates running for county, state, and federal offices. Hardly anyone who served with Newt in Congress has endorsed him and that fact speaks for itself. He was a one-man-band who rarely took advice. It was his way or the highway." He added: "In my run for the presidency in 1996 the Democrats greeted me with a number of negative TV ads and in every one of them Newt was in the ad. He was very unpopular and I am not only certain that this did not help me, but that it also cost House seats that year. Newt would show up at the campaign headquarters with an empty bucket in his hand -- that was a symbol of some sort for him -- and I never did know what he was doing or why he was doing it, and I'm not certain he knew either."

So should supporters of Obama be backing Gingrich in Florida? A few months ago no one thought he could ever be the most popular candidate amongst Republican voters (A Gallup tracking poll this week shows Gingrich six points ahead on the rest of the Republican field!) - is Newt clever enough to win a national race? (remember his achievement in the 1994 congressional elections).