US Elections

Yes, we all know about the Presidential election in November - but it's not the only game in town. There will be Congressional elections (34 of the 100 Senate seats and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives), plus various State & local elections and some referenda)

Over the next few months, Washminster will (as it has in previous elections) preview some of the key contests.

But let's kick things off with an overview of the Senate. Whatever the result of the Presidential election, the Senate elections could play a key role in setting, or limiting the direction of American politics in coming years. Even the most ambitious, charismatic President could find his or her (isn't it wonderful be be able to write that phrase at last) plans could be derailed by the Senate. ALL legislation must pass the Senate, and confirmations for Executive and Judicial positions must be made by the 100 member body. The rules of the Senate give a lot of power to individual Senators - who can hold up or even block legislation and confirmations.

At present, 34 of the 100 seats will be up for election. The current make-up of the Senate is Republicans 54, Democrats 44 and 2 independants. (Both of these, Bernie Sanders & Angus King, usually vote with the Democrats). A net gain of 4 seats would give the Democrats control if Clinton wins (the Vice-President has the casting vote in the event of a tie). If Trump wins, the Democrats need a net gain of 5. But a bare majority is not the most important outcome for Presidential-Congressional elections. To end a filibuster (a key tool in the arsenal of a minority) 60 votes are needed. If the President has vetoed legislation passed by both Houses, 67 votes are needed to override that veto.

The Democrats have 10 seats to defend. Currently Cook (the Cook Report, a highly regarded forecaster of US elections) lists 8 of these as Solidly Democratic. 1 (Colorado) is classed as leaning Democratic.

But what makes the election exciting is that 24 Republican seats will be contested. 6 are currently thought to be toss-ups by Cook - enough for the Democrats to take control. North Carolina 'leans Republican - so is in British terms, marginal; and 6 'likely Republican - less marginal, but potentially vulnerable. Eleven are seen as Solid.

Five months out, and there is much that could change. However, these are the elections that could define the presidency of Trump or Clinton. Washminster will help you keep your eye on the critical contests.

Election Night

Today is election day in the USA. These are the times that polls close in the various states - and special attention will be paid to the key Senate races. Exit polls should be available from the times below -

The times are GMT (UTC for those whose prefer not to refer to Greenwich in London - though personally Greenwich Park and the Royal Observatory there - where you can stand on the Meridian line - is one of my favourite places in London)

Midnight: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
00:30 am: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
01:00 am: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee
01:30 am: Arkansas
02:00 am: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska,
New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming
03:00 am: Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah
04:00 am: California, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington
05:00 am: Hawaii
06:00 am: Alaska

The Senate Firewall

It was reported earlier this week that the Democrats regarded the states of Iowa; North Carolina and Colorado as key to holding control of the Senate. There are other important races - but these are the ones that they see as key to the final outcome of this years Senate campaigns.

Colorado is currently held by Mark Udall, who won it in 2008. Republican Wayne Allard had been the Senator whose seat was up for re-election, but he retired. In the year that Barack Obama won the presidency (with 54% of the vote in Colorado), Udall won with 52.8% of the vote. Obama lost ground in 2012 with a majority of 137,858 over Romney. That constituted a Democratic vote of just 51%. Cory Gardner is the Republican challenger.

 

Iowa is an open Senate seat, with the retirement of Tom Harkin - who was one of the so-called "Watergate Babies" elected to the House of Representatives in 1974, and who won election to the Senate ten years later. Bruce Braley for the Democrats, and Joni Ernst for the Republicans have been fighting a close battle. Obama won the state in 2008 (54%) and 2012 (52%) - losing 6,396 votes on the way. This a race to keep a close eye on!

 

 

Kay Hagan has her work cut out to hold on to her Senate seat representing North Carolina. At the last presidential election, Romney beat Obama by 50% to 48%. At the same election a Republican, Pat McCrory, won the race to be governor by 55% to 43%. The two houses of the State Legislature are held by the Republicans. In the US House of Representatives the NC delegation has 9 Republicans and 4 Democrats. Politics in America 2014 commented, "Republicans are eager to knock off Hagan in the 2014 elections, but her actions as a first-term senator have set her up for a spirited defense." The Republican challenger is Thom Tillis, the current Speaker in the State House of Representatives.

 

 

Congressional Elections

We are now less than a month away from Election Day in the United States. Whereas in Britain, we minimise the number of different elections on the same day - in the US, voters can face a barrage of different electoral contests. Obviously, there is no presidential election this year - but every voter has a chance to elect, at least, a member of the House of Representatives. About a third of states will also have an election for their Senator - and there may be various State and local elections to vote on too.

This blog will highlight the Congressional Elections. So in the next month, I'll be posting about some of the individual races.

If you'd like to see a sample ballot - click here. This is what voters in Fairfax County, Virginia - in the 10th Congressional District will see - or to be more accurate - what they can already see. Already voters can go to the polls with "In-Person Absentee Voting".

Congressional Retirees

Yesterday Washminster linked to the current list of British MPs standing down in the UK's General Election due in 2010. The November elections in the USA will also see a number of retirees.

Roll Call magazine regularly publishes its "Casualty List". This weeks list has the following statistics -

9 Congressmen (4 Dems & 5 Repubs) are standing down from the House to run for the Senate.

9 Congressmen (2D, 7R) are standing down to run for other offices - plus 1 Republican Senator.

3 Congressmen plan to retire (all Democrats) and 7 Senators (3D, 4R)

Running for Senate

Roy Blunt R-Mo

Mike Castle R-Del

Paul Hodes D-NH

Mark Kirk R-Ill

Kendrick Meek D-Fla

Charlie Melancon D-La

Jerry Moran R-Kan

Joe Sestak D-PA

Todd Tiahrt R-Kan

Running for Other Office

Neil Abercrombie D-Hawaii

Gresham Barrett R-SC

Artur Davis D-Ala

Nathan Deal R-GA

Mary Fallin R-OK

Jim Gerlach R-PA

Pete Hoekstra R-Mich

Adam Putnam R-Fla

Zach Wamp R-TN

Senator Sam Brownback R-Kan

Retiring

Dennis Moore D-Kan

John Tanner D-TN

Brian Baird D-Wash

Senator Kit Bond R-MO

Senator Jim Bunning R-KY

Senator Roland Burris D-Ill

Senator Judd Gregg R-NH

Senator Ted Kaufman D-Del

Senator Paul Kirk D-Mass

Senator George Voinovich R-Ohio

Senate Races 2010

Yes it's a long time to go (and a British General Election will precede it!), but interest is already rising over the 2010 Elections in the US. This week we learnt that Senator Martinez (Republican of Florida) will step down early. This will ensure that the Republican Governor - Charlie Crist - can appoint a new Senator, who will be an incumbent for the 2010 election. There has been some speculation that he may appoint himself, though he has already denied this. (NPR Report).

The latest Race Ratings can be found at The Cook Political Report (30th July).

Al Franken

The Week Ahead

Monday will see the election of a new Speaker in the House of Commons. It will be the first time that a secret ballot will be used. John Bercow was the favourite - but a fierce anti-Bercow campaign has been mounted - particularly by fellow Tory MPs and some of the press. He is seen as one of the reformers - and Westminster, despite the current storms, can be very resistant to meaningful change.

Thursday will see the usual Business Statement - which prompts discussion of a number of issues on MPs' minds. The House will then be asked to approve various motions, including the establishment of a London Regional Committee and Regional Grand Committees; a motion relating to Members Pensions; and motions relating to Select Committees. Other business in the Commons includes the 2nd Reading of the Marine and Coastal Access Bill (Tuesday) and an Opposition initiated debate on the Iraq Inquiry which was announced last week (Wednesday). While that debate rages in the Commons - another contoversial issue - the Parliamentary Ombudsman’s report into Equitable Life will be discussed in Westminster Hall.

It will be a busy week in the Lords. I'll be interested to know what direction Lord McNally will move in his supplementary to his question asking about plans to celebrate the centenary of the Parliament Act 1911.

The Parliamentary calendar is available at http://services.parliament.uk/calendar/

In Washington the House will spend time on

H.R. 2892 - Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2010; H.R. 2647 - National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2010; and the H.R. concerning - Department of the Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2010.

The House schedule can be found at http://democraticleader.house.gov/docUploads/22WeeklyLeader62209.pdf?CFID=7017212&CFTOKEN=43085550

The Senate is likely to start the week on the Tourism Bill. After false rumours went around on Thursday that the Minnesota Supreme Court would rule that day on the contested election (yes - it is still going on!!!), we wait to hear if a decision will be made this week.

Results - by the Precinct

Television coverage of the results will focus on the State level - who will win the electoral votes for the Presidency; Senate and District (House of Representatives) races and so on. But if you want the detailed figures - at the precinct (uk equivalent - "ward" or "parish") level the results will be posted by the appropriate election board.

Fairfax County, VA: http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/eb/returns.htm

Alameda County, CA: http://www.acgov.org/rov/current_election/index.htm

Multnomah County, OR: http://mcelections.org/2008-11/results.shtml

Travis County, TX: http://www.co.travis.tx.us/county_clerk/election/20081104/results.asp

Sample Ballots

So what does the ballot look like? Below are sample ballots from a number of places in the USA (I selected these because of my own connections)

Alexandria, VA: http://alexandriava.gov/uploadedFiles/elections/info/2008NovFullUnofficialSample(1).pdf

Fairfax County, VA ( VA 11 district): http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/eb/OS_Sample%20Ballot%20Style3.pdf

Northampton, MA: http://www.northamptonma.gov/cityclerk/uploads/listWidget/6771/Specimen%20Ballot-November%204,%202008.pdf

Rugby, ND: http://www.co.pierce.wa.us/xml/abtus/ourorg/aud/Elections/Archives/gen08/vpweb.pdf (pages 13-16)

Signs

I took the video camera with me as we drove through Stratford Landing - the area I'm staying in, which is about a mile from Mount Vernon, the estate of George Washington





Today I've been out in Alexandria - trying (successfully each time!) to persuade supporters to let us replace their yard signs (16 inches by 26 inches) by bigger ones - eight foot by four foot! Later we went along the medians (central reservation) of one of the main streets putting up ordinary size yard signs. A deposit is required for the licence to put signs there (which is forfeited if any of the rules - and they are quite precise and complex in terms of size of sign and how many feet from official signs). I helped make Eisenhower Avenue very decorative.

Election Meeting

On Saturday afternoon I attended an election meeting in the Cora Kelly Recreation Center, Alexandria. I recorded this video of one of the speeches made there.

Early Voting

Many states now allow voters to "vote absentee in person", sometimes referred to as "early voting". In Virginia this is permitted if there is a valid reason why a person might not be able to turn up to vote on election day. More details of the Virginia rules can be found at http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Absentee_Voting/Index.html. Other states do not require a reason - and as in the United Kingdom - absentee voting is a right (In Britain this can only be achieved by voting by post or by voting by proxy).

This morning I went to the farmers market in the old town of Alexandria. I recorded this video at 8.30 am.

10.30pm EDT (Oct 30th) Northern Virginia

Another busy day. This time I was based in the Victory Virginia Offices - where I was telephoning voters to find out their voting intentions. I was struck at the low numbers of people I actually got to speak to. Only about 1 in 6 calls were answered - all the others were either wrong numbers (quite a low proportion compared to my experience in the UK) or voicemail/ansafone cut in. I guess Americans, due to the higher levels of sales calls,use this more as a filter. However this was about the same success rate as I noted in the 2004 election. On my way home I made a short video -

6 AM EDT Northern Virginia

The half hour 'infomercial' by Obama was broadcast last night. It cost millions. Overnight I got another email from the Obama asking for a $5 donation (about £3.50) - small enough to be tempting -and successful in the large sums raised by these small but frequent requests. [and NO, I haven't donated - it would be againgst the law]

Early voting is in full swing. In Fairfax County, Virginia you can vote 'in person absentee' from 15th October to 1st November - 8am to 8pm at the Office of Elections and 1pm to 8pm at satellite locations on Mondays to Fridays. On Saturday the times are 9am-5pm at all locations. In Virginia you have to have a valid reason (though the reasons are wide and fairly easy to meet). Some states allow absentee voting as of right.

North Carolina

Much attention will be paid in the next few days to the State of North Carolina. For much of the last month it has been regarded as a dead heat in the presidential race; the Senate seat has been seen as a possible turnover to the Democrats and the 8th district could also fall.

North Carolina has emerged as one of the country's leading growth states. It has a population of 8.85 million people, increasing by almost 50% in just 25 years. The old industries of textiles and tobacco have given way to high-tech research - particularly into pharmaceuticals (GlaxoSmithKline has its headquarters in the state); semiconductors; photonics; nanotechnology and security technology. Banking has also made North Carolina its home - though Wachovia has had a difficult time and has now been taken over by San Francisco based Wells Fargo.

Incumbent Senator, Elizabeth Dole is fighting to keep the senate seat she won in 2002. She is the wife of former Senator Bob Dole, but has been a formidable political figure in her own right. During her career she has served on the Federal Trade Commission; was sat in the cabinets of two Presidents (Secretary of Transportation under President Reagan and Secretary of Labor under the senior President Bush). She ran for President herself, but withdrew a year before George W Bush won for the Republicans. Her campaign website can be found at http://www.elizabethdole.org/

The Democrats chose Kay Hagan, niece of former Governor and Senator Lawton Chiles. She is a state Senator who was once a vice president of NCNB (now Bank of America), then North Carolina’s largest bank. Her website is http://www.kayhagan.com/home

The Eighth District is currently held by Robin Hayes, a multimillionaire who won in 2006 by just 329 votes. He has served in Congress since his first election in 1998. Hayes is a hunting and fishing enthusiast - who once part-owned a NASCAR racing team, another of his passions. His family business specialises in textiles. The campaign website is http://www.robinhayes.com/

Larry Kissell was the challenger who came so close to unseating Hayes in 2006. A High School Teacher by background, Kissell hopes that he came be second time lucky. His website is http://www.larrykissell.com/

The newspapers of North Carolina can be accessed via http://www.50states.com/news/ncarolin.htm. This is a state to watch with close interest on Election Day.

17.30 EDT Mount Vernon

I've returned from a day in a Democratic office in Alexandria. There is great anticipation, as well as a lot of hard work going on in preparation for election day. Most volunteers I spoke with had already voted. Under the law of Virginia, if you meet certain criteria you can vote early or by post. At the metro station on the way home volunteers were handing out leaflets about voting early.

In today's Washington Post there are articles comparing Obama and McCain's proposals on Healthcare reform. I have to say, as a British subject - who is diabetic and has a strong family history of heart disease, I'm glad to have the National Health Service. I was diagnosed because I was routinely (and without cost to me) tested by the new doctor I registered with when I moved to Rugby. The government has provided extra money for such testing. My medicines for the condition are provided on prescription (which are free for diabetics). It's reassuring that should I fall victim to serious illness, neither I nor my family would need to worry about the massive cost of treatment. I'm free to choose which doctor to register with,

Oregon

The Senate seat for the western state of Oregon is currently held by a former Mormon bishop who became a self-made millionaire by turning his family's unprofitable frozen vegetable processing company into one of the largest frozen food companies in the country. He is a Republican in a state in which the Governor; Senior Senator and four of the five congressmen are Democrats. Gordon Smith is fighting to gain a third term. He is a closely related to the Udall family. Smith is one of the few Senate Republicans to vocally oppose the Iraq war - and has been Senator Kennedy's chief co-sponsor of the hate crimes bill. His website is http://www.gordonsmith.com/

Challenging him is Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives. In the 1980s he worked in Washington, first in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; then in the Congressional Budget Office. His official campaign website is http://www.jeffmerkley.com/

11.00pm North Virginia

It was going to be a long day anyway - flying to Washington Dulles via Amsterdam - but took even longer than expected. Heavy winds closed all but one of the runways, and my flight was diverted to Baltimore. The plane war refueled and then arrived at Washington. After going through immigration and customs I took the Washington Flyer to West Falls Church metro station & made my way, changing at Rosslyn & Pentagon to Huntington, where I was met by friends.

On the flight over I had an interesting chat with a Virginia resident about the forthcoming elections - and the unprecedented interest they had generated. I also took the opportunity to read the newspapers and magazines, plus a detailed opinion poll done by NPR. I recommend having a look at the report and the Powerpoint presentation that goes with it (http://www.greenbergresearch.com/index.php?ID=2271)

I'm now off to bed - and will visit campaigners in the morning.

09.00 GMT - Birmingham International Airport

Within the next hour I am due to take a flight to Amsterdam, where I will transfer to a flight to Washington Dulles. I'll be in the Washington/North Virginia area for the last week of the US Elections. I'll be posting updates during the coming days, as I, a Brit, observe the climax of this fascinating election. I'll be based in Virginia's 11th District - where House, Senate & Virginia's electoral votes for the President are up for grabs.