US Elections and Europe

Europeans have long been interested in US Elections, particularly the ones for the Presidency. I've been following them intensively since 1972 - and was involved in every one from 2004 to 2016. Many of the posts related to those campaigns (and my experiences and insights) can still be found on this blog.

I have no plans to travel to the US for this election - but others do. I am happy to share their experiences with you on Washminster.

Today I am profiling Marianne-Ségolène Gindrey, a young woman with a passion for politics - both in her native France and particularly in the US. I know of her through "twitter" (@MSGindrey). She was born in Bali and currently lives in Arras France, though travels widely. She is a journalist and political activist - as she explains in a post (French original, rough translation follows) - "Je suis journaliste , femme politique , chanteuse , auteure. Amie avec Ségolène Royal , et représentante francophone d’Hillary Clinton, je suis journaliste pour SFnewsfeed.us. 

J’ai dirigée une grande association dans ma vie et j’ai été bénévole pour un président africain. Je soutien Joe Biden pour 2020. Et je vais être coordinatrice fédérale en Californie pour mon ami candidat au poste de gouverneur.

J’arrête de fumer dès ce soir et travaillerai pour une clinique à Harlem à New York pour fin 2021. Clinique spécialisée dans l’addiction. 

J’ai écrit des livres, dans ma vie, j’ai chanté des tubes et j’ai adressé en 2012 un courrier à Nelson Mandela."

I am a journalist, politician, singer, author. Friends with Ségolène Royal, and French-speaking representative of Hillary Clinton, (le comité Onward Together France) I am a journalist for SFnewsfeed.us.

I have led a large association in my life and I have volunteered for an African president. I'm supporting Joe Biden for 2020. And I'm going to be the federal coordinator in California for my friend who is running for governor.

I'm quitting smoking tonight and will be working for an addiction clinic in Harlem, New York by the end of 2021.

I have written books in my life, I sang hits and in 2012 I wrote to Nelson Mandela.

[Ségolêne Royale is a French politician, former Parti-Socialiste candidate for the French presidency, a former member of the Assemblée nationale, Minister, President of the  and leading light within the PS. She was in the same class at the prestigious ENA [École nationale d'administration] as her former partner of 30 years, François Hollande (French President 2012-17), as well as Dominique de Villepin (prime minister (2005-07) under Jacques Chirac).  This week she launched back into political activity ahead of this years French local elections.]

Marianne explained her support for Joe Biden - "Je soutien Biden car il a le plus d’expérience parmi tous les candidats. Ensuite il me rappelle l’ère d’Obama, et il est le plus fort contre Trump;

Je n’aime pas Bernie Sanders et donc j’opte pour un candidat qui a de meilleures idées. 

Biden est courageux car comme moi il a perdu sa femme et un bébé dans sa vie. Je le comprend."

"I support Biden because he has the most experience of all the candidates. Then he reminds me of the Obama era, and he's the strongest against Trump;

I don't like Bernie Sanders and so I opt for a candidate who has better ideas.

Biden is courageous because like me he lost his wife and a baby in his life. I understand it."

I very much hope that Marianne will continue to share with us her thoughts and observations as the election. Do send me any questions you would like me to put to her about her work and the US elections.

US Elections

Yes, we all know about the Presidential election in November - but it's not the only game in town. There will be Congressional elections (34 of the 100 Senate seats and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives), plus various State & local elections and some referenda)

Over the next few months, Washminster will (as it has in previous elections) preview some of the key contests.

But let's kick things off with an overview of the Senate. Whatever the result of the Presidential election, the Senate elections could play a key role in setting, or limiting the direction of American politics in coming years. Even the most ambitious, charismatic President could find his or her (isn't it wonderful be be able to write that phrase at last) plans could be derailed by the Senate. ALL legislation must pass the Senate, and confirmations for Executive and Judicial positions must be made by the 100 member body. The rules of the Senate give a lot of power to individual Senators - who can hold up or even block legislation and confirmations.

At present, 34 of the 100 seats will be up for election. The current make-up of the Senate is Republicans 54, Democrats 44 and 2 independants. (Both of these, Bernie Sanders & Angus King, usually vote with the Democrats). A net gain of 4 seats would give the Democrats control if Clinton wins (the Vice-President has the casting vote in the event of a tie). If Trump wins, the Democrats need a net gain of 5. But a bare majority is not the most important outcome for Presidential-Congressional elections. To end a filibuster (a key tool in the arsenal of a minority) 60 votes are needed. If the President has vetoed legislation passed by both Houses, 67 votes are needed to override that veto.

The Democrats have 10 seats to defend. Currently Cook (the Cook Report, a highly regarded forecaster of US elections) lists 8 of these as Solidly Democratic. 1 (Colorado) is classed as leaning Democratic.

But what makes the election exciting is that 24 Republican seats will be contested. 6 are currently thought to be toss-ups by Cook - enough for the Democrats to take control. North Carolina 'leans Republican - so is in British terms, marginal; and 6 'likely Republican - less marginal, but potentially vulnerable. Eleven are seen as Solid.

Five months out, and there is much that could change. However, these are the elections that could define the presidency of Trump or Clinton. Washminster will help you keep your eye on the critical contests.

Pennsylvania Places

The town of Scranton is better known these days. Vice President, Joe Biden was born there - as was Hillary Clinton's father (Hugh Rodham). It is of course the place in which The Office (An American Workplace) is set. I had heard of it long ago as an uncle of my mother had emigrated to the town and lived there before moving to Denver. When my family took a holiday in the USA we stayed near Scranton (on a lake in the Poconos) - and I was struck how similar the architecture was to the mining villages of South Wales. (where my great-uncle had come from.)

Nearby is Wilkes-Barre - where we went to our first baseball game. The town is named in honour of two English Parliamentarians who supported the cause of American during the struggle for independence - the figher for liberty, John Wilkes and Isaac Barre.

They had known each other for a number of years - serving in the Commons, and Wilkes was a lieutenant colonel for the militia of five counties and the 34th Foot, which was commanded by Barre. Apparently though they didn't really like each other.

Isaac Barre had a significant military career. He fought with Wolfe in America, and was with him at the Battle of Quebec. It was during that battle that he lost an eye. He entered Parliament in 1761 and has been described as "the most vocal champion of America in Parliament"

John Wilkes will be the subject of a forthcoming post (when I have completed Arthur H. Cash's biography 'John Wilkes: The Scandalous Father of Civil Liberty.')