Happy New Year

2010 has now arrived across the world. May I wish a happy new year to all the regular, and to one-off visitors to this blog. As I have indicated in recent posts, 2010 promises to be a particularly interesting year.

Elections will dominate. I will be looking at some of the competitive races in both the British and American elections. The lastest estimates of competitive House of Representatives seats have been made by the leading analysys. CQ Politics reckons that 102 seats are competitive at the moment (70 Democrat held; 32 Republican held) The Rothenbery Political Report thinks there are 61 (47 Democrats; 14 Republican), while the Cook Political Report puts the figures at 49 competitive races (38 Democrat & 11 Republican).

As events in Congress have shown us - there are a lot of procedural tactics available for use in pushing forward/delaying legislation - and we'll be looking at them as they arise. With an election looming in the UK we may be innovative attempts to influence the speed of legislation in Britain too!

During the year I will be undertaking quite a bit of historical research - so I hope to share with you some of the stories from the development of the US Congress; UK Parliament and European Parliament.

The Questions USA 2010

General Elections are less frequent in the UK than the US (may be famous last words if the forthcoming election is inconclusive!). 2010 will see mid term elections at the Federal level in the USA. All seats in the House of Representatives are up for election (though not all may be contested!) - and a third of Senate seats. In addition there will be state and local elections. Unlike the UK, election day is already set - it will be on Tuesday November 2nd.

What will the key questions be for followers of the US Congress?

111th Congress - the battles of the first session will continue into 2010 - with the added effect of an election looming ever nearer. Will the Republicans intensify their policy of obstruction? Will there be renewed attempts by some to promote bipartisanship, or will partisan strife intensify? What will the effect of the last year be on the unity (or otherwise) of the parties?

Congressional Elections - who will the voters punish? Will there be more successful third party candidates? How will the results affect the working of Congress? (as we have seen this year the need for supermajorities is important in order to progress with and pass legislation).

The Relationships between the different branches of Government - a system based on the separation of powers depends upon those relationships for its effectiveness. How will the relationships work in 2010?

Washminster will be be publised in Washington for part of January. I hope you will regularly visit this blog as the answers to these questions are considered here in 2010.

Senate Races 2010

Yes it's a long time to go (and a British General Election will precede it!), but interest is already rising over the 2010 Elections in the US. This week we learnt that Senator Martinez (Republican of Florida) will step down early. This will ensure that the Republican Governor - Charlie Crist - can appoint a new Senator, who will be an incumbent for the 2010 election. There has been some speculation that he may appoint himself, though he has already denied this. (NPR Report).

The latest Race Ratings can be found at The Cook Political Report (30th July).