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Washminster
Washminster
Showing posts with label US House Elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US House Elections. Show all posts
We are now less than a month away from Election Day in the United States. Whereas in Britain, we minimise the number of different elections on the same day - in the US, voters can face a barrage of different electoral contests. Obviously, there is no presidential election this year - but every voter has a chance to elect, at least, a member of the House of Representatives. About a third of states will also have an election for their Senator - and there may be various State and local elections to vote on too.
This blog will highlight the Congressional Elections. So in the next month, I'll be posting about some of the individual races.
If you'd like to see a sample ballot - click here. This is what voters in Fairfax County, Virginia - in the 10th Congressional District will see - or to be more accurate - what they can already see. Already voters can go to the polls with "In-Person Absentee Voting".
One of the raft of primaries to be held on Tuesday 14th September is attracting particular attention. NY15 (New York's 15th Congressional District) is currently held by Charles Rangel - currently coming to the end of his 20th term. [he was first elected in 1970 - and is now over 80]. It is not his age which has made him vulnerable. The ethics charges which he is facing are the reason that this major player in US politics is facing a serious challenge.
There is a certain irony that the most most likely to topple him is the son of the long serving Congressman that Rangel himself toppled in a closely fought primary in 1970. Adam Clayton Powell was a prominent civil rights leader and pastor who was elected in 1944. A website about him can be accessed here. Rangel's main challenger on 14th is [Adam Clayton Powell IV] the son of Adam Clayton Powell by his third wife. [His half-brother, the son of Clayton Powell and his jazz (and classical) singer & pianist wife, Hazel Scott, is Adam Clayton Powell III].
Charlie Rangel's website can be accessed here and Adam Clayton Powell IV's here.
NY15 covers Harlam and northern Manhatten. In 2007 the district was 28% Black and 46% Hispanic - Powell is the son of the most famous black of his time, and the daughter of a mayor of San Juan, Puerto Rico - and was raised and educated in Puerto Rico after his parents separated.
Yesterday Washminster linked to the current list of British MPs standing down in the UK's General Election due in 2010. The November elections in the USA will also see a number of retirees.
Roll Call magazine regularly publishes its "Casualty List". This weeks list has the following statistics -
9 Congressmen (4 Dems & 5 Repubs) are standing down from the House to run for the Senate.
9 Congressmen (2D, 7R) are standing down to run for other offices - plus 1 Republican Senator.
3 Congressmen plan to retire (all Democrats) and 7 Senators (3D, 4R)
Television coverage of the results will focus on the State level - who will win the electoral votes for the Presidency; Senate and District (House of Representatives) races and so on. But if you want the detailed figures - at the precinct (uk equivalent - "ward" or "parish") level the results will be posted by the appropriate election board.
I took the video camera with me as we drove through Stratford Landing - the area I'm staying in, which is about a mile from Mount Vernon, the estate of George Washington
Today I've been out in Alexandria - trying (successfully each time!) to persuade supporters to let us replace their yard signs (16 inches by 26 inches) by bigger ones - eight foot by four foot! Later we went along the medians (central reservation) of one of the main streets putting up ordinary size yard signs. A deposit is required for the licence to put signs there (which is forfeited if any of the rules - and they are quite precise and complex in terms of size of sign and how many feet from official signs). I helped make Eisenhower Avenue very decorative.
The Eighth District of Virginia includes Alexandria; Arlington and extends westward to include Reston. It has been represented by Congressman Jim Moran since 1991. His House website can be visited at http://moran.house.gov/. During an election meeting in Alexandria he explained the historic significance of this election -
On Saturday afternoon I attended an election meeting in the Cora Kelly Recreation Center, Alexandria. I recorded this video of one of the speeches made there.
Many states now allow voters to "vote absentee in person", sometimes referred to as "early voting". In Virginia this is permitted if there is a valid reason why a person might not be able to turn up to vote on election day. More details of the Virginia rules can be found at http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Absentee_Voting/Index.html. Other states do not require a reason - and as in the United Kingdom - absentee voting is a right (In Britain this can only be achieved by voting by post or by voting by proxy).
This morning I went to the farmers market in the old town of Alexandria. I recorded this video at 8.30 am.
Another busy day. This time I was based in the Victory Virginia Offices - where I was telephoning voters to find out their voting intentions. I was struck at the low numbers of people I actually got to speak to. Only about 1 in 6 calls were answered - all the others were either wrong numbers (quite a low proportion compared to my experience in the UK) or voicemail/ansafone cut in. I guess Americans, due to the higher levels of sales calls,use this more as a filter. However this was about the same success rate as I noted in the 2004 election. On my way home I made a short video -
The half hour 'infomercial' by Obama was broadcast last night. It cost millions. Overnight I got another email from the Obama asking for a $5 donation (about £3.50) - small enough to be tempting -and successful in the large sums raised by these small but frequent requests. [and NO, I haven't donated - it would be againgst the law]
Early voting is in full swing. In Fairfax County, Virginia you can vote 'in person absentee' from 15th October to 1st November - 8am to 8pm at the Office of Elections and 1pm to 8pm at satellite locations on Mondays to Fridays. On Saturday the times are 9am-5pm at all locations. In Virginia you have to have a valid reason (though the reasons are wide and fairly easy to meet). Some states allow absentee voting as of right.
Much attention will be paid in the next few days to the State of North Carolina. For much of the last month it has been regarded as a dead heat in the presidential race; the Senate seat has been seen as a possible turnover to the Democrats and the 8th district could also fall.
North Carolina has emerged as one of the country's leading growth states. It has a population of 8.85 million people, increasing by almost 50% in just 25 years. The old industries of textiles and tobacco have given way to high-tech research - particularly into pharmaceuticals (GlaxoSmithKline has its headquarters in the state); semiconductors; photonics; nanotechnology and security technology. Banking has also made North Carolina its home - though Wachovia has had a difficult time and has now been taken over by San Francisco based Wells Fargo.
Incumbent Senator, Elizabeth Dole is fighting to keep the senate seat she won in 2002. She is the wife of former Senator Bob Dole, but has been a formidable political figure in her own right. During her career she has served on the Federal Trade Commission; was sat in the cabinets of two Presidents (Secretary of Transportation under President Reagan and Secretary of Labor under the senior President Bush). She ran for President herself, but withdrew a year before George W Bush won for the Republicans. Her campaign website can be found at http://www.elizabethdole.org/
The Democrats chose Kay Hagan, niece of former Governor and Senator Lawton Chiles. She is a state Senator who was once a vice president of NCNB (now Bank of America), then North Carolina’s largest bank. Her website is http://www.kayhagan.com/home
The Eighth District is currently held by Robin Hayes, a multimillionaire who won in 2006 by just 329 votes. He has served in Congress since his first election in 1998. Hayes is a hunting and fishing enthusiast - who once part-owned a NASCAR racing team, another of his passions. His family business specialises in textiles. The campaign website is http://www.robinhayes.com/
Larry Kissell was the challenger who came so close to unseating Hayes in 2006. A High School Teacher by background, Kissell hopes that he came be second time lucky. His website is http://www.larrykissell.com/
I've returned from a day in a Democratic office in Alexandria. There is great anticipation, as well as a lot of hard work going on in preparation for election day. Most volunteers I spoke with had already voted. Under the law of Virginia, if you meet certain criteria you can vote early or by post. At the metro station on the way home volunteers were handing out leaflets about voting early.
In today's Washington Post there are articles comparing Obama and McCain's proposals on Healthcare reform. I have to say, as a British subject - who is diabetic and has a strong family history of heart disease, I'm glad to have the National Health Service. I was diagnosed because I was routinely (and without cost to me) tested by the new doctor I registered with when I moved to Rugby. The government has provided extra money for such testing. My medicines for the condition are provided on prescription (which are free for diabetics). It's reassuring that should I fall victim to serious illness, neither I nor my family would need to worry about the massive cost of treatment. I'm free to choose which doctor to register with,
It was going to be a long day anyway - flying to Washington Dulles via Amsterdam - but took even longer than expected. Heavy winds closed all but one of the runways, and my flight was diverted to Baltimore. The plane war refueled and then arrived at Washington. After going through immigration and customs I took the Washington Flyer to West Falls Church metro station & made my way, changing at Rosslyn & Pentagon to Huntington, where I was met by friends.
On the flight over I had an interesting chat with a Virginia resident about the forthcoming elections - and the unprecedented interest they had generated. I also took the opportunity to read the newspapers and magazines, plus a detailed opinion poll done by NPR. I recommend having a look at the report and the Powerpoint presentation that goes with it (http://www.greenbergresearch.com/index.php?ID=2271)
I'm now off to bed - and will visit campaigners in the morning.
Within the next hour I am due to take a flight to Amsterdam, where I will transfer to a flight to Washington Dulles. I'll be in the Washington/North Virginia area for the last week of the US Elections. I'll be posting updates during the coming days, as I, a Brit, observe the climax of this fascinating election. I'll be based in Virginia's 11th District - where House, Senate & Virginia's electoral votes for the President are up for grabs.
The tenth district of Illinois covers the suburbs north of Chicago and runs along the shore of Lake Michigan. It has the state's highest percentage of college educated and white collar workers.
Mark Kirk is a centrist Republican who has served in the House since 2000. He is noted for his concerns over congressional ethics - he threatened to vote against ethics rules changes proposed by the Republican leadership which would have protected Tom DeLay. He has promoted legislation to cancel the benefits of any member of Congress who is convicted of a felony. "Well educated and polished" (Congressional Quarterly), Mark Kirk earned one of his three degrees from the London School of Economics and worked for a British MP before becoming a congressional staffer. His website is http://www.kirkforcongress.com/
Challenging Congressman Kirk is Dan Seals, who contested the seat in 2006. Electoral-vote.com makes the point that "this could be a big year for charismatic young politicians from Chicago". Dan Seals is a business consultant and public policy lecturer at Northwestern University. His website ( and I love the walk on video!) is http://www.dansealsforcongress.com/index.php
Chris Shays is a respected moderate Republican who has been described by National Journal as "a pivotal Republican in the House...a pleasant man with a stubborn streak and considerable legislative savvy...when he feels strongly, he will risk everything". He has publicly disagreed with his party on campaign finance reform (which National Journal has described as 'Shay's great cause'); abortion; gun control; arts subsidies; gay rights; the minimum wage; defencespending; and Census sampling. Yet he is one of the most vulnerable incumbents on the GOP side.
The Fourth Congressional District of Connecticut is "the wealthiest district in the nation's wealthiest state". It extends from the outskirts of New York City along the coast of Long Island Sound. It extends inland covering the south west corner of Connecticut. Its major cities are Bridgeport (139,529); Stamford (117,083) and Norwalk (82,951). The current troubles on the financial markets will hit this area hard with many working in Wall Street living in the district and Greenwich is a centre for the hedge fund industry.
Chris Shay's website is http://www.shaysforcongress.org/. His opponent from the Democrats is Jim Himes, a former Goldman Sachs investment banker. He is currently the Vice President of a community 'affordable housing' organisation. His website is http://himesforcongress.com/ .
The Cook Report said last week "For House Republicans, already dark days are getting darker. Movement in Congressional races tends to accelerate in mid-October, and with the exception of Rep. Tim Mahoney’s district (FL-16), every district on the move is headed in Democrats’ direction". This is bad news for Marilyn Musgrave, the Representative from Colorado's Fourth District. National Journal wrote that this third term congresswoman "in this firmly Republican district"..."has struggled with reelection". CQ noted that her victory margin has dwindled with each election and that "In 2006, she held the dubious distinction of winning with the lowest vote share of any member". Cook has continued to rate this as a Republican toss up.
The 4th covers the eastern part of the State, which includes almost all of the High Plains plus the fast-growing area around Greeley (76,930), Fort Collins (118,652) and Loveland (50,608). It borders five other states! (New Mexico; Oklahoma; Kansas; Nebraska & Wyoming)
National Journal said that after her election to the House in 2002 "Musgrave quickly made a name for herself with her independent style and outspoken conservatism". She was the lead sponsor of the Federal Marriage Amendment banning same-sex marriage. She successfully passed an amendment to prevent enforcement of a law passed in 2005 that had required gun dealers to sell trigger locks along with the guns. The American Conservative Union rates Musgrave as the most conservative member of the House! The campaign website is http://musgraveforcongress.org/
Her opponent, in what some have dubbed "the battle of the blonds" is Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Ken Salazar. She has also worked for Senator John Durkin (New Hampshire) and Congressman Herb Harris of Virginia - before working for the Treasury and State Departments. Later she co-founded a software firm. Her campaign website is http://www.markeyforcongress.com/
Colorado has seen some powerful political ads in this closely fought election- examples include
The State of Alaska may be huge in size, but it is small in population terms. It is therefore entitled to two Senate seats (as are all States - which is why the Senate has 100 members) and one Representative (when this happens they are referred to as the 'Representative-at-large').
This blog looked at the Senate race on August 29th. Representative Don Young is fighting to retain the seat he has held since March 1973. As Electoral-Vote.com notes - "Normally an 18-term congressman who wants to be reelected just has to show up." But Representative Young has been involved in one of the many scandals which are affecting Alaskan politics. He is the subject of a federal investigation concerning bribes and failure to report gifts. He had a hard time in the Republican primary, but won by just 304 votes.
Prior to entering Congress Young was a tugboat captain on the Yukon. National Journal describes him as "a hot-tempered, salty-tongued true believer, given to malapropisms and tough talk". He once described environmentalists as a "self-centred bunch, the waffle-stomping, Harvard-graduating, intellectual idiots".
His Democratic challenger is the former Alaska House Minority Leader, Ethan Berkowitz. He's had an interesting life - how many politicans can make claims similar to that on Mr Berkowitz's website-
"Ethan’s hauled nets and picked fish on commercial boats in Bristol Bay, herded reindeer in the Aleutians, and snowmachined from Manley to Nome. He has traversed glaciers, and driven the Haul Road. He has dipnetted on the Copper and hunted caribou on the Kobuk. He’s shared food everywhere from Metlakatla to Barrow, slept on couches in places from Kaltag to Kenai, picked berries in Bethel, gotten stitched up in Palmer, purchased a wardrobe in Petersburg, flipped a skiff in the Lynn Canal, tipped his truck just off the Glenn Highway, celebrated a birthday in Cordova, and spent a lot of time jawboning in Juneau."
Alaska politics is very interesting at the moment (an example of typical British understatement). Newspapers in the state can be accessed via http://www.50states.com/news/alaska.htm
The assumption has been made by many people that this year's congressional elections will be good for the Democrats - with speculation over whether in the Senate the size of the group tops 60 (which would permit them to successfully invoke cloture) or even 67 (allowing an override of a Presidential veto) - in the House whether the group would be large enought to override Presidential vetoes there (up to 290, should 435 vote).
We await the results. But even a Democratic landslide may involve a loss of some currently held seats. The following is a list of Open Seats previously held by the Democrats or seats in which the incumbent Democrat is a freshman - which have been listed recently as a toss up or only lean Democratic by the Cook Political Report
AL 05 OPEN
AZ 05 Harry Mitchell
AZ 08 Gabrielle Giffords
CA 11 Jerry McNerney
FL 16 Tim Mahoney
IL 14 Bill Foster - seized from the GOP in a special election held in March 2008
IN 09 Baron Hill
KS 02 Nancy Boyda
KY 03 John Yarmuth
LA 06 Don Cazayoux - seized from the GOP in a special election held in May 2008
MS 01 Travis Childers - seized from the GOP in a special election held in May 2008
NH 01 Carol Shea-Porter
PA 04 Jason Altmire
PA 10 Chris Carney
TX 22 Nick Lampson - fmr Congressman (1996-2004) for the old 9th district, part now in 22nd
WI 08 Steve Kagen
Paul Kanjorski, who has served 12 terms, may be vulnerable in PA 11
In the Senate, only Louisiana Senior Senator, Mary Landrieu - who has served since 1996, is listed as merely 'lean Democratic'
Retired. An experienced lecturer, tutor and researcher with practical experience of working in the UK and European Parliaments.
I have a keen academic and practical interest in the workings of both the UK Parliament and the US Congress.
Over the years I have broadcast on both British and US Politics for BBC local radio stations and presented Platform:MK, Heritage:MK & Heritage Matters on Milton Keynes based Community Radio Stations.
