US Elections

Yes, we all know about the Presidential election in November - but it's not the only game in town. There will be Congressional elections (34 of the 100 Senate seats and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives), plus various State & local elections and some referenda)

Over the next few months, Washminster will (as it has in previous elections) preview some of the key contests.

But let's kick things off with an overview of the Senate. Whatever the result of the Presidential election, the Senate elections could play a key role in setting, or limiting the direction of American politics in coming years. Even the most ambitious, charismatic President could find his or her (isn't it wonderful be be able to write that phrase at last) plans could be derailed by the Senate. ALL legislation must pass the Senate, and confirmations for Executive and Judicial positions must be made by the 100 member body. The rules of the Senate give a lot of power to individual Senators - who can hold up or even block legislation and confirmations.

At present, 34 of the 100 seats will be up for election. The current make-up of the Senate is Republicans 54, Democrats 44 and 2 independants. (Both of these, Bernie Sanders & Angus King, usually vote with the Democrats). A net gain of 4 seats would give the Democrats control if Clinton wins (the Vice-President has the casting vote in the event of a tie). If Trump wins, the Democrats need a net gain of 5. But a bare majority is not the most important outcome for Presidential-Congressional elections. To end a filibuster (a key tool in the arsenal of a minority) 60 votes are needed. If the President has vetoed legislation passed by both Houses, 67 votes are needed to override that veto.

The Democrats have 10 seats to defend. Currently Cook (the Cook Report, a highly regarded forecaster of US elections) lists 8 of these as Solidly Democratic. 1 (Colorado) is classed as leaning Democratic.

But what makes the election exciting is that 24 Republican seats will be contested. 6 are currently thought to be toss-ups by Cook - enough for the Democrats to take control. North Carolina 'leans Republican - so is in British terms, marginal; and 6 'likely Republican - less marginal, but potentially vulnerable. Eleven are seen as Solid.

Five months out, and there is much that could change. However, these are the elections that could define the presidency of Trump or Clinton. Washminster will help you keep your eye on the critical contests.

Pre-appointment Hearings

In the United States a large number of appointments are subject to confirmation hearings. In the UK there is no similar requirement, but in recent years Select committees have experimented with "pre-appointment hearings". The Liaison Committee has today published a report on these hearings which says -

"we recommend a number of changes to the system as it stands.
 The list of posts to which the procedure applies should be refined. We propose, for the purposes of further discussion, a three-part list. Posts in the first tier are those we consider to be of sufficient constitutional significance as to require a process which is effectively a joint appointment by Government and the House of Commons. Posts in the second tier are those which we propose should be subject to an enhanced and improved version of the current process, and which should be subject to an "effective veto" by the House of Commons or its committees. For posts in the third tier we propose that a pre-appointment hearing should be at the discretion of committees.

The procedure for pre-appointment hearings should be refined to provide for:

greater consultation between Ministers and committees at the outset of the recruitment process on the definition of the post and the criteria for selection;

more information to be provided to committees in advance of hearings about the field of candidates from which the preferred candidate has been selected;
 a recognition that it may be appropriate for the Chair of a committee to discuss privately with a Minister any reservations the Committee may have about a candidate before issuing its report and before the Minister proceeds to a decision;
 a resolution of the House of Commons confirming appointments in certain cases.

Congratulations, you've been nominated by the President....

Should you ever hear those words, how should you behave? There is a useful survivor's guide. At it's heart are the so called "Korologos Commandments" - a succinct set of rules suggested by Republican aide and lobbyist, Tom Korologos. He served as US Ambassador to Belgium - but is best known for his experience in assisting people facing nominations.

* Model yourself after a bridegroom at a wedding. Be on time, stay out of the way and keep your mouth shut.

* Before confirmation, give no speeches, write no letters, make no public appearances. Senators do not like to read about grant plans of an unconfirmed nominee.

* You may have been a brilliant success in the corporate world or some other field of endeavor, but the Senate expects you to be suitably humble and deferential, not cocky.

* There is no subject on this Earth that the Senate is not free to probe. Be ready with polite and persuasive answers.

* The purpose of the hearing is to get in and get out. Follow the 80-20 rule. If the senators are talking 80 percent of the time and you are talking 20 percent, you are winning … If it’s 60-40, you’ve got a problem. If it’s 50-50, you’re losing and the confirmation is in trouble.

* The Constitution stops at the hearing room door. There are no rules of evidence …. There will be hearsay questions, irrelevant questions and even some stupid questions. Be ready for all of them

C-SPAN recently broadcast an hour's presentation (available here) on  testifying before Congress - by William LaForge, who has recently published a handbook of the same name.

Confirmation Hearings

The US Senate has a long history of "confirmation hearings" - rooted in its constitutional role to give its "advice and consent" to the President in respect of appointments to the judicial and executive branch. The process is described in a CRS Report available here.

It has long been a hope of reformers in the House of Commons that Select Committees will play a greater role in scrutinising major appointments. As with many things in the British Parliament, there has been a slow evolution of their role. The Coalition Agreement appears to suggest that things are about to change.

A House of Commons Library paper issued this week, outlines some of the background and issues. It is available here.

Britain is not about to adopt a system like that of the US Senate - we won't be rushing into the types of logjams in appointments that can occur when there are partisan divisions over particular nominations - and individual MPs won't be able to put "holds" on nominations - but there could be a significant improvement in the ability of Parliament to scrutinise.

And now the work starts...

The inauguration celebrations have been completed and the work of the new administration begins in earnest. This blog's primary focus is on the work of legislatures - so will be following closely relations between the Executive branch and Congress.

Within a few hours of President Obama taking office six of his Cabinet nominees and the Budget Director were confirmed by the Senate [Steven Chu (Energy); Arne Duncan (Education); Janet Napolitano (Homeland Security); Ken Salazar (Interior); Eric Shinseki (Veterans Affairs) Tom Vilsack (Agriculture); and Peter Orszag (OMB Director)]. A Roll Call vote in the Senate on Hillary Clinton (State) is due at 16.30 EST (21.30 UK), while committees have yet to vote onEric Holder (Attorney General), expected today - and on Timothy Geithner (Treasury).

The White House Legislative Affairs Office is key to the relationship between the President and Congress. It headed by the Director of Legislative Affairs - Phil Schiliro. Lisa Konwinski is the Deputy Director for Legislative Affairs. Other members of the 14 person team are

Dan Turton - Deputy Director for the House of Representatives

Shawn Maher - Deputy Director for the Senate

Jay Heimbach - Senate

Christopher Kang - Senate

Sean Kennedy - Senate
Jim Oleske - Senate

Louisa Terrell - Senate

Jim Papa - House

Alejandro Perez - House
Jonathan Samuels - House

Shelly O'Neill Stoneman - House

Denise Wilson - House