Friday, 6 January 2012


The largest state in terms of population - with 55 Electoral Votes. As 270 votes are needed to win, it's a useful state to win. Since 1992 it has always given its electoral votes to the Democrats, but post-war the Democrats have won the state only twice - in 1948 and 1964. In 1948 and 1960 the results were very close - Nixon beat Kennedy by a margin of just 0.55% (35,623 votes) and Truman beat Dewey by just 17,865 votes (0.44% margin). The State produced two post war Presidents - Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

The interest in 2012 will probably not be in the presidential result. Cook regards the state as "Solid Democrat", but he lists 7 Democratic and 5 Republican seats as competitive. Redistricting has had a major impact - forcing incumbents to fight each other (for example Laura Richardson (D-37th) and Janice Hahn (D-36th) are likely to face each other in the new 44th). Some retirements have already been announce, and more are expected. Once the fields become clearer, Washminster will profile the individual districts and candidates.

Maps of the old and new House seats can be accessed at http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/maps-final-draft-congressional-districts.html

As of the beginning of this month - the following districts were regarded as competitive (Cook)
Nominally Democratic - 3rd, 9th, 16th, 24th, 26th, 41st, 47th
Nominally Republican - 7th, 10th, 21st, 31st, 52nd

Dianne Feinstein is up for re-election in the Senate. That rate is currently regarded as "Solid Democrat"