Saturday 18 October 2008

Vulnerable Democrats

The assumption has been made by many people that this year's congressional elections will be good for the Democrats - with speculation over whether in the Senate the size of the group tops 60 (which would permit them to successfully invoke cloture) or even 67 (allowing an override of a Presidential veto) - in the House whether the group would be large enought to override Presidential vetoes there (up to 290, should 435 vote).
We await the results. But even a Democratic landslide may involve a loss of some currently held seats. The following is a list of Open Seats previously held by the Democrats or seats in which the incumbent Democrat is a freshman - which have been listed recently as a toss up or only lean Democratic by the Cook Political Report

AZ 05 Harry Mitchell
AZ 08 Gabrielle Giffords
CA 11 Jerry McNerney
FL 16 Tim Mahoney
IL 14 Bill Foster - seized from the GOP in a special election held in March 2008
IN 09 Baron Hill
KS 02 Nancy Boyda
KY 03 John Yarmuth
LA 06 Don Cazayoux - seized from the GOP in a special election held in May 2008
MS 01 Travis Childers - seized from the GOP in a special election held in May 2008
NH 01 Carol Shea-Porter
PA 04 Jason Altmire
PA 10 Chris Carney
TX 22 Nick Lampson - fmr Congressman (1996-2004) for the old 9th district, part now in 22nd
WI 08 Steve Kagen
Paul Kanjorski, who has served 12 terms, may be vulnerable in PA 11

In the Senate, only Louisiana Senior Senator, Mary Landrieu - who has served since 1996, is listed as merely 'lean Democratic'
For up to date Competitive Race Charts visit http://www.cookpolitical.com/node/1927