The Coming General Election

There will be a General Election in the UK during 2010. That is predictable - the date can be guessed at (most people think that May 6th is the most likely, being local election day) - but otherwise this could be the most unpredictable election for some time. A number of factors are at play -

New boundaries will take effect. There are few constituencies that will see no change. Electoral data from previous elections is only available at constituency level. Therefore it is difficult to compare directly the old and new seats. Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have produced projections of change which are heavily relied upon. (C. Rallings & M. Thrasher, The Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies, (Plymouth: LGC Elections Centre, 2007)) A very sophisticated model is used, but exact data on a ward by ward basis is not published.

In British elections the concept of "swing" has featured heavily in analysis. (A wikipedia article explains the concept in more detail here). Essentially the formula is

Swing = ((A2 - A1) + (B1 - B2)/2)

where A2 is the percentage vote for Party A in election 2 (most recent election), A1 is the percentage vote for Party A in election 1,and similarly for Party B.

This works well when there are only two parties contesting a seat - but the vote has become more fractured over time. The next election is likely to see even more independents standing.

Many predictions for individual constituencies are based on a uniform swing across the country - which of course never happens.

There has been a crisis of confidence in the main political parties partly as a result of the expenses scandal, but which has deeper and older roots. This will make predictions very difficult for individual constituencies.

There are a number of computer websites that allow you to "predict" the results such as

Electoral Calculus

Telegraph

UK Elect

As the General Election nears, this blog will (as it did with the 2008 Congressional Elections in the USA) give you the background to the key seats.

Is a General Election in the offing?

You would think so - recently the House of Commons Library has published papers on

The Dissolution of Parliament

Election Timetables

Under the Septennial Act 1715 (as amended) - a parliament is automatically dissolved if it has continued in existence beyond five years (from the date of its first meeting - a few days after the General Election). The practice in recent years is that the date of a General Election id decided upon by the Prime Minister when he requests that parliament be dissolved.

Congressional Elections

In the UK we limit the number of elections that can be held on the same day. The last three General Elections have coincided with County Council Elections - and there are some who still argue that two elections (possibly three if there is a district council by-election) is too much for the poor voter to cope with.

In the US Election Day can cover a whole host of elections - from the Presidency to the local dogcatcher. On November 4th US citizens will have a number of federal; state and local positions to vote on (and some will have votes on issues).

Over the period from now until Election Day I will post entries on some of the key Congressional races. A few points to note. In the US the incumbancy factor is greater than in the UK. Being a Senator or Congressman gives one greater name recognition; and more opportunities to raise campaign funds (who'll invest more in a challenger - when the incumbent has power to affect Government spending - British MPs may weep at this point!!!)). As a result "Open" seats are the more competitive. Americans are also more prepared to cross-vote - voting for a Democratic Congressman but a Republican for President. In fact some people take the American view of balanced powers so seriously that they deliberately cross vote.