The New United States

Washminster has been silent for a while - too much going on, too little time. But now it is back - to a very different world.

We've had Brexit at home (I am a Milton Keynes based UK (and for the moment EU) citizen) and now the transition begins from the Obama presidency to a very different kind of Presidency, that of Donald Trump. I campaigned in both the referendum and the US elections - and after my track record , I am considering volunteering for Marine Le Pen's campaign in France - in order that my curse can descend on that - and a good result is obtained.

Interesting Times lie ahead - and Washminster will be following, explaining & discussing what happens in the USA, the UK, France & then the next big Election - Germany.

Do send your comments and questions. The next twelves months will be interesting!!!

Around the World in a day!

Yesterday I attended a meeting hosted by the British Library on campaigning in the 2012 US Presidential Election - then attended a European Citizens' Dialogue at the Royal Institution - and finally headed to Parliament for a meeting about the First World War! The range of Washminster's interests in a day! (US; UK & EU).

The first meeting allowed for an exchange of views about techniques in US campaigning - which has a real relevance this side of the pond since such ideas often cross the Atlantic. One theme was that we should not be blinded by the technology - it merely allows for more effective campaigning of the type that has existed since mass democracy arrived. It is still a matter of contacting voters - particularly those who are sympathetic to your views - and getting them out to vote.

The European Citizens' Dialogue was an event for the public. Citizens were able to put questions and ideas to and receive answers from a Commissioner, Viviane Reding, and a UK Government Minister, David Lidington, the Minister for Europe. There was a useful exchange of views. A video and further information is due (at the time of writing this post on 11th February 06-13am) to be available here.

The parliamentary meeting was put on by the British Council to launch its report "Remember the World as well as the War" - about the First World War. It was a fascinating meeting, with speakers describing the research around the world about peoples' knowledge and views of the significance of that conflict. The report is well worth reading, and I learnt a lot. It is available here.

Corby - and its lessons

Washminster has been silent for a few days - one of the reasons is the by-election which was fought in Corby, Northamptonshire. I was up there for the last few days - and of course Election day itself. It has been interesting to participate in an English election so soon after completing a period in an American election. Some of the practices (and the language) were very different - but the lessons to be learned are the same.

(1) The need for planning and preparation - the superb operations to get out the vote ('GOTV' in the jargon) depended upon the hard slog in the months before contacting voters - by phone or in person. Although the by-election wasn't expected until Louise Mensch made her surprise announcement that she was quitting Parliament (6th August 2012), Andy Sawford had been selected as the candidate to challenge her in the next General Election due in May 2015. For months he - and many Labour activists in the Corby constituency had been reaching out to voters, finding out who might be supportive of Andy Sawford and Labour. This effort was taken to a new level after Mrs Mensch's announcement. When we went out on Thursday - we knew who had indicated that they would be voting Labour. Much work was done behind the scenes plotting out walking routes on the day to ensure that Labour turnout was high.

(2) The value of co-operative efforts - a superb team went out on Thursday, prepped by the staff and volunteers who had done so much to make the operation smooth and effective. I was really impressed by the dedication and sheer hard work put in. People from around the country came to Corby to help. I'd seen similar things in North Virginia. In particular, there are some impressive young people volunteering - who put my generation to shame.

(3) The message was explained - in person - to voters. It is easy to become reliant on computers - and TV ads (in the USA) and glossy leaflets. They have their role - but nothing beats talking to voters and answering their questions. On the day, few knew that there was an election and who Andy Sawford was - or what he stood for. This was in sharp contrast to the Police and Crime Commissioner Elections. The turnout was abysmal and few knew who was standing; why & what the job was about. Big money in the USA goes towards short TV ads that may be pejorative, but aren't high in useful information content. In the UK the Police Commissioner elections had a handful of "public information" ads, but there was not the money - or the volunteer manpower available to get the necessary information out. In a democracy we need an informed electorate - relying on big money or volunteers clearly isn't sufficient.

(4) There was much more emphasis in the States on voting as a duty of citizenship. This was stressed before election day - and voters are given a badge when they have voted. We are priviliged to live in democracies - where we choose our representatives. Failing to vote is an abdication of responsibility. I understand that many people feel that politicians aren't giving good service. The answer is not to put one's head in the sand and refuse to participate in elections. Voting makes politicians accountable. Tell them what you want. If they are third-raters only interested in lining their own pockets - take them on. Turn up to the occasional council meeting - write to your MP who has been behaving like a schoolboy in Prime Minister's Question Time. I've found that an adult discussion between voters and politicians helps both understand each other better - and the challenges we face as a community (whether it be the problems in a particular street or international problems). Most people (voters and politicians) are reasonable - and can accomplish more if they exchange ideas. Politicians should stop blaming the electorate for being switched off - you need to do more to engage the public - and individuals should take their duties as citizens seriously - and participate in decision making. That might be by becoming a school governor or a parish councillor. It might involve telling politicians that you want to see more action on facing the threat from climate change or demanding answers when your money is misspent - but at the very least it should involve weighing up the choices at an election and voting.

I'd appreciate your comments on what I've written - and please do share with others. Yes, I write as a Labour/Democratic supporting activist. But the issues apply across the political spectrum. We may disgree on the solutions to today's challenges - but a healthy democracy needs involvement from all who have a brain to use.

Election Night

I will be tweeting from Mount Vernon, northern Virginia from now on - at

jdm_progressive

I have lots of pictures and videos to upload - hope to be able to do that before I leave for home on Thursday. As they used to say - "stay tuned"

American Elections

I am increasingly using e-books rather than physical hard- or even paperbacks. They are easier to carry around (Usually the have an advantage in both volume and weight), and space is running out in my library. An excellent book that I am using at the moment is "Presidential Elections: Strategies and Structures of American Politics". This is now in its 13th Edition. It's original authors - Nelson Polsby and Aaron Wildavsky have passed away - but the quality and detail we had come to expect from them has been maintained. The Structure of the book is

Part One - The Strategic Environment
C1 - Voters
C2 - Groups
C3 - Rules and resources

Part Two - Sequences
C4 - The nomination process
C5 - The campaign

Part Three - Issues
C6 - Appraisals
C7 - American Parties and Democracy




If you need the physical version - further down the page is a link to the hard and paperback versions.

Virginia

Next Tuesday it will be election day in the USA.

Of course this year the elections are not as high profile. 2012 will see a Presidential election; the whole House of Representatives will be up for election; and one third of the Senate.

This year however there is only one Federal election - a primary for the special election in Oregon's 1st Congressional District (The special election (by-election) will be held on 31st January). There are Gubernatorial elections (for the State Governor) in Mississippi and Kentucky - and a handful of States have State and Municipal elections.

Virginia has State Legislative elections (General Assembly) and local elections - further details can be found at the website of the Virginia State Board of Elections ( http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Index.html). My particular interest is in the Stratford Landing, Mount Vernon area of Fairfax County - where votes are to be cast for

Virginia Senate, 36th District (1)
Virginia House of Delegates, 44th District (1)
Commonwealth's Attorney (1)
Sheriff (1)
Chairman, Board of Supervisors, Fairfax County (1)
Member (Mt Vernon), Board of Supervisors (1)
School Board (at large) (3)
School Board (Mt Vernon) (1)
Soil & Water Conservation Area Director (Northern Virginia District) (3)

and the School Bonds referendum ("Shall the Board of Supervisors of Fairfax County, Virginia, contract a debt, borrow money, and issue capital improvement bonds in the maximum aggregate principal amount of  $252,750,000 for the purposes of providing funds, in addition to funds from school bonds previously authorized and any other available funds, to finance, including reimbursement to the County for temporary financing for, the costs of school improvements, including acquiring, building, expanding and renovating properties, including new sites, new buildings or additions, renovations and improvements to existing buildings, and furnishings and equipment, for the Fairfax County public school system?"

For further details of precincts and candidates press here.

Redistricting

The census held in the USA every ten years has an impact on the political geography of the country. At a Federal level the allocation of seats in the House of Representatives to each state changes - and district boundaries are redrawn to take account of the population shifts. In the Presidential Election the electoral college changes - as the numbers of votes in the college for each state must be "equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives top which the State may be entitled in the Congress" (Constitution Art II Section I).

The Census was held on April 1st - but the calculation of the figures takes several months. The "Form Delivery and Mail Back Phase" took from 3rd January to 16th April. There was then a "Door to Door Follow Up Phase" which lasted until 10th July. Quality Assurance Operations lasted from 11th April to 3rd September. The complete Questionnaire Data Capture and Processing began in May and ends in December. The 2010 Population Counts are due to be reported on 31st December. [By law the data must be delivered to the President of the United States by the Census Bureau on or before December 31, 2010].

States can then begin the process of redistricting. There is no uniform way of doing this - and some redistricting is in the hands of the state legislatures - which is why the 2010 state election results were so important. Some states do have independent bodies to recommend proposals.

So we don't yet know what the new map will look like - but estimates have been made. Election Data Services have produced their estimates - fuller details here - and suggest that the States which will gain seats are

Texas (4); Florida (2); Arizona; Georgia; South Carolina; Nevada; Utah and Washington

The potential Losers are

New York (2); Ohio (2); Illinois; Iowa; Louisiana; Massachusetts; Michigan; Missouri; New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Elections

Britain may have a long break until the next elections (almost five years to the next General Election, if this autumn legislation is passed to introduce fixed term parliaments - and if the coalition holds together for that long) - though there will be a number of sizeable electoral tests on 5th May 2011 (The referendum on AV;  local elections in England, the Scottish Parliamentary election and the Welsh Assembly elections.)

However the 2010 midterms are fast approaching. As in 2008 Washminster will review some of the key seats in both the House and Senate elections.

Watch this space....

Election 2010

With many of the primaries now behind us, the outlines of the November General Election in the USA are becoming clearer. It's going to be an interesting election season - which Washminster will be following.

A couple of newspaper articles may be of interest to you. CQ Politics gives an overview of the Senate races - which is accessible here.

The New York Times has a piece on the Republicans while CQ provides background on the Democrats.

Race rating information - including maps - can be viewed here.

Retirements

This week has seen the announcements that Senators Dodd of Connecticut and Dorgan of North Dakota will not be seeking re-election. This will make the November elections even more interesting. Former Congressman Bob Carr has written in his blog about the factors which lead to politicans deciding to stand down - and not follow the example of Senator Byrd.

Bob Carr's blog is one worth following. He gives an insight into the workings of Congress - and I wish him every success as he develops the blog.

To read Bob's blog press here - and follow his blog - I certainly do.

The Questions USA 2010

General Elections are less frequent in the UK than the US (may be famous last words if the forthcoming election is inconclusive!). 2010 will see mid term elections at the Federal level in the USA. All seats in the House of Representatives are up for election (though not all may be contested!) - and a third of Senate seats. In addition there will be state and local elections. Unlike the UK, election day is already set - it will be on Tuesday November 2nd.

What will the key questions be for followers of the US Congress?

111th Congress - the battles of the first session will continue into 2010 - with the added effect of an election looming ever nearer. Will the Republicans intensify their policy of obstruction? Will there be renewed attempts by some to promote bipartisanship, or will partisan strife intensify? What will the effect of the last year be on the unity (or otherwise) of the parties?

Congressional Elections - who will the voters punish? Will there be more successful third party candidates? How will the results affect the working of Congress? (as we have seen this year the need for supermajorities is important in order to progress with and pass legislation).

The Relationships between the different branches of Government - a system based on the separation of powers depends upon those relationships for its effectiveness. How will the relationships work in 2010?

Washminster will be be publised in Washington for part of January. I hope you will regularly visit this blog as the answers to these questions are considered here in 2010.

Elections 2010

Washminster will of course be previewing some of the key races in the UK General Election and the US Congressional Elections which will occur in 2010. It will be an important election year in both countries. There are other countries which will also be going to the polls in coming months. An excellent website has been set up by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems listing national elections, and giving details for each country.

IFES also produces research on issues relating to elections - including a study of Political Finance Regulation around the world. The group which assesses the experience of regulation is available here.

UK OPINION POLLS

For the UK it is possible to track the parties in the Guardian/ICM polls back to 1984 via this link.

Election Day

Once again it's the "Tuesday after the first Monday in November". The New York Times explained why that date had become "Election Day" in an article published on 1st November 1910 -

"The State of New York in 1841 was the first to adopt "Tuesday after the first Monday in November" as its election day. Most of the States at that time held their elections on the first Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday in November. The congressional act of March 1, 1792, had prescribed that elections for Presidential electors be held "within thirty-four days preceding the first Wednesday in December, every fourth year."... The quadrennial election day was made uniform after a act was passed in 1845. Originally the date was to be the first Tuesday in November - but this amended when it was realised that the 1792 act would also need to be amended because, in some years the first Tuesday in November would be outside the 34 day period."

Elections are being held today in

California 10th District - Special Election for House of Representatives seat.

New York 23rd District - Special Election for House of Representatives seat.

New Jersey - gubernatorial and General Assembly elections.

Virginia - gubernatorial and House of Delegates elections.

There are also gubernatorial and state legislature elections in the Northern Mariana Islands (a terrority) and numerous municipal elections throughout the USA.

I will of course, as ever, be watching the results in Fairfax County, Northern Virginia (from the UK - but I'll check online the following morning - I don't intend to stay up all night watching as I have in the past! - I have to be in Westminster early on Wednesday). You can see a sample ballot for Virginia's District 44 here.