The implications of withdrawal

One of my OU students joked at a recent tutorial that he now hoped Britain would leave the EU - since that would remove half the work for the W200 course.

Alas, that's not on the cards. For him, the exam will be on the 8th October - and withdrawal won't have happened by then.

But even if Britain were to withdraw - we couldn't ignore EU Law. It will continue to impact on our trading with other EU countries (which makes up a large majority of our trade). Norway has never joined - but is greatly affected - and must abide by EU law - though it has no say in the making of EU Law.

This week the House of Commons Library (which is an excellent, independent, research body) published a paper about leaving the EU. http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP13-42.pdf. It's well worth reading. The Times wrote "Britain would face a huge bill from the EU and may still have to obey many of its rules should voters opt to leave Europe, an independent analysis has warned."

The summary states -

"The Treaty on European Union provides for a Member State to leave the EU, either on the basis of a negotiated withdrawal agreement or without one. If the UK were to leave the EU following a referendum, it is likely that the Government would negotiate an agreement with the EU, which would probably contain transitional arrangements as well as provide for the UK’s long-term future relations with the EU. There is no precedent for such an agreement, but it would in all likelihood come at the end of complex and lengthy negotiations.

The full impact of a UK withdrawal is impossible to predict, but from an assessment of the current EU role in a range of policy areas, it is possible to identify issues and estimate some of the impacts of removing the EU role in these areas. The implications would be greater in areas such as agriculture, trade and employment than they would in, say, education or culture.

As to whether UK citizens would benefit from leaving the EU, this would depend on how the UK Government of the day filled the policy gaps left by withdrawal from the EU. In some areas, the environment, for example, where the UK is bound by other international agreements, much of the content of EU law would probably remain. In others, it might be expedient for the UK to retain the substance of EU law, or for the Government to remove EU obligations from UK statutes.

Much would depend on whether the UK sought to remain in the European Economic Area (EEA) and therefore continue to have access to the single market, or preferred to go it alone and negotiate bilateral agreements with the EU."

The Welsh Referendum

There will be a referendum held in Wales a week tomorrow (3rd March 2011). In recent years there has been increasing use of referenda on "Constitutional issues" within the UK. The setting up of the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly was preceded by a referendum in each country. There have also been referenda in parts of England on proposals for enhanced regional government. (London voted Yes [1998], all the others voted No [2004]). Referenda have been more frequently used in Northern Ireland.

Wales has itself had two referenda on devolution - both asked whether the Welsh people wanted a National Assembly to be set up - in 1979 (NO); and in 1997 (YES). The current referendum is about whether the Assembly should be able to to make laws on all matters in the 20 subject areas which it currently has some powers.
For more information on the Welsh referendum visit the (politically neutral) website of the Electoral Commission - accessible here.

There will be a national UK referendum on 5th May 2011, on adopting the Alternative Vote, in place of the current voting system (which is often described as the "first past the post system"). It is only the second referendum held across the UK. The first was in 1975, over continued membership of the then EEC (now European Union). The question was -  '"Do you think the UK should stay in the European Community (Common Market)?".
67.2 percent voted Yes and 32.8 percent voted No.

Other "Constitutional changes" have been adopted without a referendum - such as transfer of further powers to the European Union and (Royal Assent to the Act was given on February 16th), the reduction in the size of the House of Commons (from 650 to 600).