British Library Events

Last week I attended an excellent presentation by Amy Walter (National Editor of the Cook Political Report) about the US elections. It was a thoroughly enjoyable and informative evening. [held at the Conference Centre of the British Library - there are some excellent events on there, do say hello if you attend a future event & see me there - forthcoming events can be seen by clicking on the relevant month - October 2014; November 2014; December 2014. It's also worth keeping an eye on the Eccles Centre website - http://www.bl.uk/ecclescentre

Ms Walter's talk, and subsequent Q&A session was an excellent briefing for the forthcoming elections. She looked at the political map of the US, and explained why congressional elections were very different from Presidential elections. The Republicans are on the back foot at the Presidential level, but on very solid ground for the Congressionals. The impact of the tea party and voter ID laws were discussed.

The Cook Report website can be found at http://cookpolitical.com/ - Amy Walter's weekly column
can be found at http://cookpolitical.com/author/amy-walter/

Her recent comment about the 2016 Presidential Election is worth keeping in mind - "The most important skill for those remaining on the field is that of endurance. Pay attention to how candidates do when they are under duress, not just how they are doing while in the limelight. One bad week/month does not equal the end of a campaign. A bad response to that bad week/month, however, suggests a campaign that’s not equipped for the long- haul."

Gubernatorial Races

As you would expect this blog has concentrated on the Senate and House races in Tuesday's forthcoming US Elections. But while the British continue to debate whether it is a good idea to have a number of elections and a referendum on the same day, many US voters have a number of votes to cast - in addition to the Congressional elections.

A number of States will be choosing their Governors. The Democrats will be defending 19 governships, whilst the Republicans defend 18. The latest ratings from Cook can be viewed here. California is currently held by the Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger . The race to replace him pits Jerry Brown (Democrat) against Meg Whitman (Republican). A map of California (and its 53 congressional districts) is available here.

In the last forty years four of the eight Presidents have been former Governors (Carter (Georgia), Reagan (California) , Clinton (Arkansas), and George W Bush (Texas)) - while Nixon failed to win the California gubernatorial race in 1962 against Pat Brown, father of Jerry.



(Nixon's "last press conference", 1962 - after his defeat in the California gubernatorial election)

C-SPAN reports on gubernatorial races can be viewed by clicking the link on the name of the State.

Massachusetts
Texas
Illinois
Iowa

Wisconsin

Russ Feingold, the Democratic Senator since 1992, faces a contest which Cook has listed as a "Toss Up". Feingold, a co-author with John McCain of Campaign Finance legislation. CNN/Time issued a poll last week that showed him trailing by eight points. He is a native of Janesville, Wisconsin - a city which has been the home or birthplace of California Governor, James Budd (1895-99), who served in the House of Representatives (CA 1883-5) - as did Stephen Bolles (WI 1939-41); Bob Carr (MI 1975-1981, 1983–1995); Harmon Sweatland Conger (NY 1847-51); Gilbert Nelson Haugen (IA 1899-1933);  Ithamar Conkey Sloan (1863-67); Charles Grandison Williams (1873-83) and the current Congressman for the First District, Paul Ryan.

Feingold is being challenged by Ron Johnson (Republican), their websites can be accessed here - Feingold; Johnson.

District 07 is an open seat. David Obey, who has sat in the House of Representatives since 1969 - and is the current Chair of the Appropriations Committee is standing down. The seat, listed by Cook as a "Toss Up", is being contested by Julie Lassa (Democrat) and Sean Duffy (Republican). The Seventh District is in the North West of the State. Ron Kind's district is listed as "leaning Democratic". He represents the 3rd District which is the South West seat. Kind gained his Masters degree at the London School of Economics, and worked as an intern for Leicester West's MP, Greville Janner.

The other competive seat is the 8th District where Steve Kagen is defending the seat he first won in 2006. The Eighth is the North Eastern district which includes Green Bay.