Hollande on the challenges ahead

President Hollande gave an interview about the current crisis and its challenges



The text of the interview can be found here. (Also in French - but, if your french language skills are as limited as mine - easier to follow).

French Legislative Elections

Francois Hollande won the Presidential Election - but will he enjoy a co-operative Assemblee nationale? Some people have spoken of the possibility of a "Vague rose" (in French that means 'pink wave' - referring to the the success of the Left - a delayed 'coattails effect')

The Opinion Polls are not hopeful - Le Monde reported yesterday:-

"The balance of power favors the Left, but we are not moving towards a tidal wave of (soft) red to the Assemblee nationale. This is the main lesson from the first survey of voting intentions on the parliamentary elections by Ipsos-Logica Business Consulting for Le Monde, France Television and Radio France.


In this study, (carried out on 25 and May 26 from a representative sample of the French population of 962 people), the UMP {the party that backed Sarkozy} and its allies (New Centre, Valoisien Radical Party, various right of centre parties) are credited with 35% of the vote in the first round, before the Parti Socialiste {Hollande's Party} and its allies (Radical Left Party, Republican and Citizens Movement, various left), who obtain 31%. The Front National {Le Pen} (15%), is behind them, ahead of the Left Front (8%), Europe Ecology-Greens (6%) and the extreme left (1.5%)."

While these figures give more support to the parties of the right - the expectation is that in the second round - when only the two leading candidates are on the ballot - because the Right is divided (The Front national will not pick up some of the votes given by centre-right voters) - Hollande should get a majority - but it may be a small one.

Dysfunctional Politics (1)

“Politics isn’t working” – not exactly an original thought (in fact throughout history it’s a frequently made complaint), but there is a general feeling that something is wrong. And in the four geographical areas covered by this blog, the complaints are frequent and urgent. In the video below, Mann & Ornstein talk about their latest book (which I think is an important and high quality book – and should be read by anyone with an interest in the functioning (or sadly dysfunctioning) of democracy). It’s about Congress – but the disease described can be recognised elsewhere. For example – in France, Hollande was elected last Sunday – before the evening was out a UMP Mayor had expressed her view that he lacked legitimacy. http://www.ouest-france.fr/actu/actuDet_-Une-maire-UMP-demande-l-annulation-de-l-election-presidentielle_39382-2075433_actu.Htm In the British elections turnout again dropped. What is wrong? And what is to be done about it? Washminster will look at this matter in coming posts, in the meantime, this video has some food for thought

America’s Dysfunctional Politics: Why Now? What Can We Do About It?

Archived Webcast:

View more details on Brookings.edu

The French Presidential Election

While most of the British and US media have concentrated on the US Presidential Election, this blog is also following the French presidential election (and the legislative elections - to the Assemblee nationale, which will follow).

Francois Hollande was selected as the Parti Socialiste candidate last year. His website can be found at http://francoishollande.fr/

His books include

"La Gauche Bouge", Jean-Claude Lattès, 1985.
"L'Heure des choix. Pour une économique politique", with Pierre Moscovici, 1991.
"L'Idée socialiste aujourd'hui", Omnibus, 2001.
"Devoirs de vérité", interviews with Edwy Plenel, éd. Stock, 2007.


"Droit d'inventaires", interviews with Pierre Favier, Le Seuil, 2009.
"Le rêve français" (The French Dream), Privat, August 2011.


"Un destin pour la France" (A Destiny for France), Fayard, January 2012


President Sarkozy has been a prolific writer too. His Fabebook site can be accessed here.

The Quiz

This is the round of our family quiz that I set yesterday. All answers are multiple choice. I will publish the answers tomorrow.

Q1 Which Two States will have the highest number of Electoral College Votes in 2012?


A – California & New York
B – Florida & California
C – California & Texas
D – Florida & New York
E – Texas & New York

Q2 In which département does the Parti-Socialiste’s Presidential Candidate François Hollande have his political base?

A – Nord
B – Corrèze
C – Deux-Sèvres
D – Paris
E – Charente

Q3 Which Democratic held Senatorial seat this week was moved by the Cook Political report from “Toss Up” to “Likely Republican”?

A - Pennsylvania
B – Ohio
C - Virginia
D - Nebraska
E – Florida

Q4 Who is the Parti Socialiste candidate for the Assemblée nationale constituency which includes the United Kingdom?

A – Emmanuelle Savarit
B – Axelle Lemaire
C – Bruno Guillard
D – Ségolène Royal
E – Hélène Hayman

Q5 Which of the following represents Bob Carr (former Member of Congress & friend & contributor to Washminster) in the House of Representatives?

A – Gerry Connolly
B – Debbie Stabenow
C – Fred Upton
D – Ron Kind
E – none of the above

Shaping Up

The two main elections that Washminster will be following in 2012 are beginning to take shape. Yesterday the Centre-Left in France (Parti Socialiste and the Parti Radical de Gauche) held the final round of the Primary to select a candidate to take on the current French President, Nicholas Sarkozy. The latter has yet to formally announce his bid for re-election, but it would be a real surprise if he didn't run. The PS/PRG candidate will be Francois Hollande - a former First General Secretary (Head of the Party Organisation) of the PS (1997-2008) and a depute (equivalent of MP or Representative in the Assemblee nationale) for a district in the departement of Correze (1988-93; 1997-date).

As explained in earlier posts - the French Presidential election takes two rounds - the first in which all parties can put up a candidate - and the second, in which only the highest scoring candidates face off. The first round takes place on April 22nd and the final round on May 6th.

In the United States the Republicans continue with a series of debates before the State primaries or caucuses (each State has its own method of selecting nominees for each party). The primary season has inched forward - so watch this space for details of the calendar as it changes. The chosen nominee will formally be announced at the respective conventions - but in recent decades, the winner has been obvious for some time before.

The current calendar is -


01-10December 2011 or Early January 2012 New Hampshire primary
01-03January 3, 2012 (tentative) Iowa caucus
January 14, 2012 Nevada caucus
January 21, 2012 South Carolina primary
January 31, 2012 Florida primary
February 4–11, 2012 Maine caucus
February 7, 2012 Colorado caucus
February 7, 2012 Minnesota caucus
February 28, 2012 Arizona primary
February 28, 2012 Michigan primary
March 3, 2012 Washington caucus
March 6, 2012 Alaska caucus
March 6, 2012 Georgia primary
March 6, 2012 Idaho caucus
March 6, 2012 Massachusetts primary 
March 6, 2012 North Dakota caucus
March 6, 2012 Ohio primary
March 6, 2012 Oklahoma primary
March 6, 2012 Tennessee primary
March 6, 2012 Texas primary 
March 6, 2012 Vermont primary
March 6, 2012 Virginia primary 
March 6–10, 2012 Wyoming caucus
March 10, 2012 Kansas caucus
March 10, 2012 U.S. Virgin Islands caucus
March 13, 2012 Alabama primary
March 13, 2012 Hawaii caucus
March 13, 2012 Mississippi primary
March 17, 2012 Missouri caucus
March 20, 2012 Illinois primary
March 24, 2012 Louisiana primary
April 3, 2012 Maryland primary
April 3, 2012 Washington, D.C. primary
April 3, 2012 Wisconsin primary
April 24, 2012 Connecticut primary
April 24, 2012 Delaware primary 
April 24, 2012 New York primary
April 24, 2012 Pennsylvania primary
April 24, 2012 Rhode Island primary
May 8, 2012 Indiana primary
May 8, 2012 North Carolina primary
May 8, 2012 West Virginia primary
May 15, 2012 Nebraska primary
May 15, 2012 Oregon primary
May 22, 2012 Arkansas primary
May 22, 2012 Kentucky primary
June 5, 2012 California primary
June 5, 2012 Montana primary
June 5, 2012 New Jersey primary
June 5, 2012 New Mexico primary
June 5, 2012 South Dakota primary
June 26, 2012 Utah primary
Not yet scheduled American Samoa caucus
Not yet scheduled Guam caucus
Not yet scheduled Northern Mariana Islands caucus
Not yet scheduled Puerto Rico caucus

A look at Francois Hollande

The current favourite to be the Parti Socialiste candidate in next year's French Presidential Election is Francois Hollande, a former leader of the party, who is a member of the Assemblee nationale. You may have read about him - but if you haven't seen him in action (sadly British and US TV don't give much coverage to French politics) - here is your chance.

He spoke during a debate in the assemblee nationale's session last week (in effect, the Parlement was recalled to discuss the economic situation and the government's "emergency" budget)


PLFR 2011 : François Hollande by francoishollande

M. Hollande's website is
http://francoishollande.fr/

His main rival is Martine Aubry -
http://www.martineaubry.fr/