Gubernatorial Races

As you would expect this blog has concentrated on the Senate and House races in Tuesday's forthcoming US Elections. But while the British continue to debate whether it is a good idea to have a number of elections and a referendum on the same day, many US voters have a number of votes to cast - in addition to the Congressional elections.

A number of States will be choosing their Governors. The Democrats will be defending 19 governships, whilst the Republicans defend 18. The latest ratings from Cook can be viewed here. California is currently held by the Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger . The race to replace him pits Jerry Brown (Democrat) against Meg Whitman (Republican). A map of California (and its 53 congressional districts) is available here.

In the last forty years four of the eight Presidents have been former Governors (Carter (Georgia), Reagan (California) , Clinton (Arkansas), and George W Bush (Texas)) - while Nixon failed to win the California gubernatorial race in 1962 against Pat Brown, father of Jerry.



(Nixon's "last press conference", 1962 - after his defeat in the California gubernatorial election)

C-SPAN reports on gubernatorial races can be viewed by clicking the link on the name of the State.

Massachusetts
Texas
Illinois
Iowa

Colorado

I noted on Monday that some of my family from South Wales moved to the anthracite coal city of Scranton. Some moved on from there to Denver, the major city in Colorado. That state will attract some interest in the elections next week.

The Senate seat currently held by Michael Bennet is listed by Cook as a "toss up". Bennet replaced Ken Salazar, who resigned his Senate seat in 2009 in order to take up the post of Secretary of the Interior. He is being challenged by Ken Buck. He beat the "establishment" Republican candidate, Jane Norton in the primary. He was favoured by tea party activists and has been controversial up to the election, reportedly telling a rally “Sen. Inhofe was the first person to stand up and say this global warming is the greatest hoax that has been perpetrated … the evidence just keeps supporting his view, and more and more people's view, of what’s going on,”

Three of the State's seven districts are regarded as competive. Ken Salazar's older brother John, who has served in the House of Representatives since 2004, is vulnerable in the 3rd District. The seat, which accounts for over half of the State's land mass - in the east and south - is a Cook "toss up". His Republican opponent is Scott Tipton. The Fourth District - in the West of the State was won in 2008 by Betsy Markey from Marilyn Musgrave. It is currently listed as "leans Republican". She faces a challenge from Cory Gardner.   Ed Perlmutter, has represented the 7th District (covering the Denver suburbs on three sides) since 2006. He is being challenged by the Republican Ryan Frazier. Cook rates the seat as "leans Democratic".

The Denver Post's election website is accessible from here.

A Week to Go

A week today and it will be election day in the US. Early voting is possible in many state. According to a list published in Roll Call Vermont was open for early voting from September 20th, with South Dakota from 21st. If you are a voter in the US check the last day, and what documents you are required to bring with you. Louisiana ends early voting today, and the final day does vary between states.

If you want to follow the news direct from the US, the following websites are available

CNN
MSNBC
USA Today
Washington Post
New York Times
Los Angeles Times
Politico
C-SPAN

Pennsylvania

The State of Pennsylvania is usually of electoral interest - but 2010 will focus national attention on a number of key races. The state has, as does every state - however large or small - two seats in the Senate, and 19 in the House of Representatives. The senior Senator in the 111th Congress has been Arlen Specter - who has represented the State since 1981 - 28 years as a Republican - but since April 2009 as a Democrat.

The Senate seat is being contested by Pat Toomey (Republican) and Joe Sestak (Democrat). Cook describes the race as a "toss up". Rasmussen reported on Friday that while Toomey's support has held up - Sestak's has increased sharply, bringing Toomey's lead down to only four points. President Obama will be in Philadelphia on Saturday.

A number of the House seats are also competitive

PA03 - is currently held by Kathy Dahlkemper (Democrat), serving her first term in the House. She is being challenged by Mike Kelly. This has been a Republican leaning seat - which in 2008, the year Dahlkemper was elected, McCain won the district - by just 17 votes. It is the most north-western of the Pennsylvania districts - which includes the city of Erie. Cook has this leaning Republican.

PA04 - is listed by Cook as leaning Democratic. The district is on western side of the state, to the north and north east of Pittsburgh. Jason Altmire has served two terms. He is being opposed by Republican Keith Rothfus.

PA06 - is held by Jim Gerlach, the Republican incumbent who has served this south eastern district since his election in 2002. Cook lists the seat as "likely Republican". It may be closer than would have been expected since Gerlach announced initially that he would not stand for re-election in order to run for Governor, but rejoined the race in January 2010. Gerlach's Democratic challenger is Manan Trivedi, an Iraq war veteran. The redrawing of the district for 2002 led democrats to claim that who argued it "looms like a dragon descending on Philadelphia from the west, splitting up towns and communities throughout Montgomery and Berks Counties"

PA07 - the seat which Joe Sestak is standing down from to run for the Senate. The resulting "open" seat is now listed by Cook as "leans Republican". Bryan Lentz is fighting to save the seat for the Democrats - and faces Patrick Meehan, formerly the federal prosecutor for Philadelphia. The seat covers suburban Philadelphia and most of Delaware County.

PA08 - The northern suburbs and Bucks County (named for the county in England that I technically live in - Milton Keynes is now a Unitary authority) make up the 8th District, held in the 110th & 111th Congresses by Patrick Murphy. He is another veteran standing in Pennsylvania for the Democrats. He is opposed by Mike Fitzpatrick. Cook regards this seat as a toss up.

PA10 - Chris Carney also has served in the 110th and 111th. Also like Murphy his seat is listed as a "toss up". The district covers the north east of the State. The republican challenger is Tom Marino.

PA11 - a district, to the south of the 10th, which includes Scranton (home of the American version of "The Office" - and a city which some of my family emigrated to in the early part of the twentieth century. When we spent a family holiday in the Poconos we visited the city - which struck me as architecturally reminiscent of the area in South Wales where my family came from) and Wilkes-Barre. For more on this area see my post of 24th February. Paul Kanjorski is the Democratic incumbent. President Clinton will be coming to support him tomorrow in his home town of Nanticoke (Tuesday 26th). His Republican opponent will be Lou Barletta, who is making his third attempt to unseat Kanjorski. This seat is also listed as a "toss up"

PA12 - Currently listed by Cook as "leans democratic", theis was the seat held since February 1974 by Jack Murtha. His successor, Mark Critz won the special election (the American name for what Brits call a "by-election) on May 18th. He is being challenged by the Republican Tim Burns. His website asserts "My name is Tim Burns and I am NOT a politician". I try to be balanced and non-editorial in this blog - but nothing irritates me more than candidates who make this claim. Not only are the people making it politicians in fact - they show the attribute they claim to hate most - they lie. The district in the south west of the state.

PA17 - Tim Holden's seat is listed as "Likely Democrat". He has represented the seat which CQ describes as "East-Central" of the State, and which includes Harrisburg, since 1993. His Republican opponent is Dave Argall.

So eyes will, again, be on Pennsylvania.

POTUS & FLOTUS - pre-election plans

Obama will headline rallies in Bridgeport, Conn., and Chicago, and participate in a canvassing event in Philadelphia on Oct. 30. The next day Obama will head to Cleveland with Vice President Joe Biden for his final rally of the campaign season. ... The White House has said the president plans to be in Washington on Nov. 1, the Monday before the election, and on Election Day. ... Michelle Obama will campaign in Las Vegas and Philadelphia on Nov. 1."

Wisconsin

Russ Feingold, the Democratic Senator since 1992, faces a contest which Cook has listed as a "Toss Up". Feingold, a co-author with John McCain of Campaign Finance legislation. CNN/Time issued a poll last week that showed him trailing by eight points. He is a native of Janesville, Wisconsin - a city which has been the home or birthplace of California Governor, James Budd (1895-99), who served in the House of Representatives (CA 1883-5) - as did Stephen Bolles (WI 1939-41); Bob Carr (MI 1975-1981, 1983–1995); Harmon Sweatland Conger (NY 1847-51); Gilbert Nelson Haugen (IA 1899-1933);  Ithamar Conkey Sloan (1863-67); Charles Grandison Williams (1873-83) and the current Congressman for the First District, Paul Ryan.

Feingold is being challenged by Ron Johnson (Republican), their websites can be accessed here - Feingold; Johnson.

District 07 is an open seat. David Obey, who has sat in the House of Representatives since 1969 - and is the current Chair of the Appropriations Committee is standing down. The seat, listed by Cook as a "Toss Up", is being contested by Julie Lassa (Democrat) and Sean Duffy (Republican). The Seventh District is in the North West of the State. Ron Kind's district is listed as "leaning Democratic". He represents the 3rd District which is the South West seat. Kind gained his Masters degree at the London School of Economics, and worked as an intern for Leicester West's MP, Greville Janner.

The other competive seat is the 8th District where Steve Kagen is defending the seat he first won in 2006. The Eighth is the North Eastern district which includes Green Bay.

Connecticut

Chris Dodd announced in January that he would not be seeking re-election for his Connecticut seat in the US Senate. That leaves an "Open Seat". In the US the "incumbency factor" has a much greater impact than in the UK. Individuals have to raise a much greater proportion of the funding for re-election than British MPs, where a significant amount of the funding comes from the Party. A long established Senator or Congressman can attract funds more easily than a challenger. So when the incumbent stands down, there can be a much greater opportunity for the other party to seize the seat.

The Senate seat is listed by The Cook Report as a "Toss Up". The categories used by Cook are "Solid Democratic/Republican"; "Likely Democratic/Republican"; "Lean Democratic/Republican" and "Toss Up". Of the 19 seats currently held by the Democrats, 9 are listed as "Toss Up"; 3 Leaning Republican and 1 Solid Republican. 2 Republican seats are "Toss Up"

The State of Connecticut is the highest-income state in the US, but has consistently backed the Democrats in recent Presidential Elections - and in The Senate, Dodd has represented the State since 1980, while Joe Lieberman has been the Junior Senator since 1988. He was the Democrat Vice Presidential Candidate in 2000, but has been an Independent since losing the Democratic Primary in 2006. He remains a registered Democrat and caucuses with the Democrats in the Senate.

But the Governor of Connecticut is a Republican. Jodi Rell is up for re-election and her race is also seen as a toss up.

The Senate Candidates are Richard Blumenthal (Democrat) - website - and Linda McMahon (Republican), former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO. - website.

House races in Connecticut will also be of national interest. First time Congressman Jim Himes' district CT04 - is listed as "Leaning Democrat". He represents a district which runs from the New York outskirts along the coast of Long Island Sound. It includes Stamford and Bridgeport. These are the centres of Democrat support - while areas dominated by wealthy commuters to New York provide a base for the Republicans.

Christopher Murphy in the 5th District is also vulnerable. He has served two terms, but was an architect of the healthcare legislation. Cook was listing the seat - which covers the North West of the State and includes Danbury and Waterbury - as "Leaning Democrat", but an October poll commissioned by the website CT Capitol Report suggest he may be trailing 49.7% - 44.3%.

Democrats in the 1st District (John Larson - Central Connecticut, including Hartford); the 2nd District (Joe Courtney - the Eastern half of the state) and the 3rd District (Rosa DeLauro - South, including New Haven and Milford) seem to be more secure.

A list of Connecticut newspapers (with links) can be found here.